Ambassador Michael Gfoeller, Founder of The Gfoeller Renaissance Foundation and former U.S. diplomat, analyzes in this interview with Jacob Heilbrunn the major geopolitical consequences of the war in Iran.
According to him, the potential collapse of the Islamic Republic could pave the way for a post-Islamist Iran, deeply transformed by a generational shift and the growing rejection of religious governance.
For Gfoeller, such a development would not concern Iran alone. It could shake Islamist movements across the region, weaken actors such as the Muslim Brotherhood, and reshape strategic dynamics involving Russia, China, and the war in Ukraine.
The former diplomat also believes that this moment could mark a turning point in global military strategy — the era of drones and robotic systems — while reinforcing the international position of the United States.
A Conversation exploring the possible transformations of the Middle East and their implications for the global order.
Michael Gfoeller: “A Post–Islamic Republic Iran Could Reshape the Global Balance”
by
March 2026
Recent Articles
The UAE’s Seismic Foreign Policy Shift toward America and Israel
The United Arab Emirates has undergone a profound transformation in its foreign policy over the past several months, marking one of the most consequential realignments in the Middle East since the Abraham Accords of 2020. In the midst of the 2026 Iran war, Abu Dhabi has abandoned decades of hedging diplomacy in favor of an […]
Academic Freedom and Israel-Bashing on Campus
What is it about the end of the school year that brings Israel-bashing on campus to the fore? Since the beginning of May alone: the New School’s student government voted to outlaw their Hillel chapter, Swarthmore College was vandalized with hundreds of anti-Israel slogans spray-painted across campus property (including Hamas-inspired inverted red triangles), the Chair […]
If the Head Falls, Does the Regime Follow?
Can killing a regime’s leadership bring down the regime itself? In an analysis published in The Jerusalem Strategic Tribune, Anand Toprani, Jeane Kirkpatrick Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, and Dillon Prochnicki, Research Assistant at the same think tank, take on this thorny question in depth. From Athens after Pericles to the Soviet Union after […]
