The Upside Potential of Postwar Ukraine
Post-war Ukraine will offer enormous commercial opportunities and powerful people-to-people connections. American businesses and research institutions will benefit from a rich pool of knowledge and skilled workers. This upside potential awaits a Trump administration seeking a conclusion to the war now entering its third year. Ukraine’s policymakers will face an immediate postwar economic challenge: finding […]
Beware Trump’s Wrath Over a Failed Ceasefire Agreement in Gaza
This week’s release of three Israeli female hostages and 900 Palestinian prisoners and detainees, primarily women and children, is the first step in what is expected to be a long process of bringing home Israel’s hostages and ending the war with Hamas. The agreement provides for three phases, the first two of which involve more […]
After the Gaza Ceasefire, Watch the West Bank
Hamas has plans for the West Bank. Now that there is a ceasefire in Gaza, Hamas wants to use the war it launched against Israel to bring itself more power and influence in the West Bank. It seeks to gain popularity through the prisoner releases secured in exchange for Israeli hostages – between thirty and fifty Palestinian […]
Israel’s Dilemma in Lebanon
The 60-day ceasefire in Lebanon will end on January 26, six days after President Trump takes office. While Hizbullah suffered heavy losses during the two months of fighting from late September to late November, it has been slowly, stealthily rebuilding in the Shi’ite villages of southern Lebanon. Meanwhile, Lebanon’s government has new leadership with friends in […]
Update on the War in Gaza – <br>Israel Re-engages Northern Gaza After Eight–Month Absence
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF), after 15 months of war in Gaza, are fighting in areas of northern Gaza that didn’t see IDF soldiers for eight months, between March – October 2024. The November 27 ceasefire in Lebanon, if it continues to hold, will free up further forces to re-engage in Gaza. But Hamas also […]
Lawfare Against Israeli Soldiers
Israeli tourist Yuval Vagdani had to escape for the second time. On October 7, 2023, he survived the Hamas massacre at the Nova music festival near Gaza. Then in the first week of January 2025, he escaped Brazil ahead of a court-ordered investigation into his service as a military reservist in Gaza. He was vacationing […]
Trump II Will Inherit a Divisive Political Scene in Israel
Most Israelis supported President Trump in this election, believing he would fully support Israel in its ongoing war against Iranian proxies. Prime Minister Netanyahu was among the first world leaders to congratulate him But the future Trump administration’s specific policies towards the Middle East remain unclear. During his campaign, Trump expressed interest in promoting peace […]
Trump Administration Faces a Suddenly Promising Middle East
BACKGROUND The second Trump administration will face immediate foreign policy dilemmas in all three Eurasian fronts. This paper concentrates on the Middle East, but the competing demands of Europe and East Asia, and the links among all of them, influence decisions everywhere. The dramatic events of the past year open the door to a regional […]
Rethinking America’s Ukraine Policy
Kicking the can down the road has characterized America’s Ukraine policy for the last two decades. The can is about to stop at the doorstep of incoming President Donald Trump. The assumptions that have guided US policy, crafted under far different geopolitical and geoeconomic circumstances, are simply no longer valid. The new Trump national security […]
Stubborn Facts on Supporting Israel and Combating Antisemitism
Two days before the 2024 elections and Americans find themselves in a revel of name-calling. The American media, acting as campaign surrogates, edit and spin the candidates’ remarks to support the epithets. “Facts are stubborn things,” said our second president John Adams, “and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our […]
