On March 11, Greenlanders voted in elections for their parliament, Inatsisartut. The big winner was Demokraatit (Democracy) party, which favors Greenlandic independence, though in a gradual and consensual process. The party, which won a plurality of the votes, used to support maintaining ties with Denmark. A party favoring immediate independence (Naleraq or Compass) also gained seats.
The debate over Greenland’s status has been revived by President Trump’s desire to take over Greenland, and possibly make the country part of the United States, citing strategic reasons. This resulted in a clear Danish “no.”
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has repeatedly said that Greenland belongs to the Greenlanders, and her stance has consistently received support from the EU. But this doesn’t mean she wants to let go of Greenland.
The Colonial Past
Greenland is part of the Unity of the Realm (Rigsfællesskabet) consisting of Denmark, the Faroe Islands and Greenland, where the latter two have extensive self-government. As far as Greenland is concerned, Denmark has been in control for more than 300 years, and until 1940 this large island in the North Atlantic was a Danish colony. During World War Two, Greenland gained strategic importance for the Americans, who in 1943 established Thule Air Base, today named Pituffik Space Base. After the war, Greenland changed status and became a full part of Denmark, but at the same time the idea of independence was slowly awakening, and this led in 1979 to a kind of intermediate solution, where Greenland was granted home rule.
The relationship between Greenland and Denmark is complicated. Among Greenlanders there is a widespread perception of having been treated unfairly during the colonial era and later. Currently, many are talking about the so-called spiral contraceptive case, in which 143 Greenlandic women have sued Denmark in court. In the 1960s and 1970s, about 4,500 Greenlandic women had spirals inserted by Danish doctors and nurses to prevent pregnancy, and this happened in some cases without consent. In December 2024, the Greenlandic prime minister, Múte B. Egede, accused Denmark of genocide based on this case.
Denmark is also criticized for subjecting Greenlanders to the abrupt transformation from a traditional seal hunting society to modernity. While mortality rates fell as a result of better health care, cases of suicide and alcohol abuse also exploded. This gives rise to a bad perception of Greenlanders in the eyes of many Danes, which in turn makes Greenlanders feel that the Danes consider them inferior.
Conversely, many in Denmark feel that the Greenlanders are showing ingratitude. According to the Self-Government Act of 1979, Denmark provides $630 million annually in direct support to Greenland, about $11,000 per person in Greenland. And at the same time, there is a clear Danish frustration that the Greenlanders are talking about independence without doing much about it.
An independence that will never be complete
If Greenland is to become independent, the big question is where the money will come from. Mining offers some prospects. But according to Greenlandic geologist Minik Rosing, the income from the existing 24 mines cannot sustain the local economy. Fishing and tourism are also problematic, given the risk of overfishing and, not least, the lack of labor. It is hardly possible for a population of 57,000, spread over 2,166,086 square kilometers of harsh Arctic nature, to continue developing the necessary infrastructure and social services. Professions such as doctors, teachers and engineers will be difficult to train without help from outside, while capabilities such as ships and helicopters for the coast guard and rescue service would be expensive to finance for such a small population.
Under the auspices of the Unity of the Realm, Greenland has control of the healthcare and education sectors. In 1982, the Greenlanders voted in a referendum to leave the EU, which was implemented in 1985. But overall, it is still Denmark that sets the island’s foreign and defense policy.
Danes realize that their connection to Greenland can only be maintained if there is more invested in the country and at the same time the Greenlanders are given a greater say in their governance. Denmark is in the process of expanding its military in response to the war in Ukraine (investing an extra $29 billion over the next three years). But at the same time, there is an outspoken political reluctance to invest in new coast guard vessels for Greenland, which are urgently needed.
This is where the matter stands right now. Greenlanders think in terms of independence because there is a widespread perception that this can provide them with a better life and more self-respect. But Greenlandic independence will be vulnerable to interference from major powers such as the US, China and Russia. Greenland has a natural interest in American mining and the US desire for an expanded military presence should not be a problem. The 1951 Greenland Defense Agreement grants the US military access, and for much of the Cold War, there was a much larger American footprint in Greenland than there is today.
The Danish side must therefore offer the Greenlanders a better deal than Donald Trump, which involves both more money and more self-determination.
The Greenlanders know very well what is at stake. The March 2025 elections in Greenland will stand as their expression of a desire for more independence. But is this an independence that can never be complete given limited resources and small population? At this moment, their country has gained new geopolitical importance, and that can be used to get closer to their goals and vision.
