As the incoming Trump administration turns its gaze outward, it will find a world that is rudderless in many places, often stagnant and bereft, in no small measure owing to the abdication of any meaningful leadership from the United States that began under Barack Obama. In large parts of the world—Latin America, for instance, and Africa—China has made its presence felt in the vacuum left by Washington. Trump’s instincts are not internationalist, to state the obvious, but his Secretary of State-designate, Marco Rubio, will no doubt feel the need to do his job with the energy and acumen of which many of us know he is capable.
One area to which Rubio must pay attention is South Asia (as the Indian subcontinent is now called). Here is a brief primer on each country in that region, a roadmap, in effect, guided solely by what this writer believes is best for the United States.
India
The regional giant, India has emerged as one of the most promising and essential security partners for Washington in the 21st century. A natural counterweight to China, India needs no persuasion to grasp the threat posed to the American-led world order by an assertive, mercantilist and, above all, revanchist China.
Trump should focus, as he did in his first administration, on trade and India’s tariffs—with an additional national security priority on India as a pillar of the US partnership in Asia. Democracy and human rights are not Trump’s forte, and while the erosion of both in India is cause for concern, there is no profit in making these an issue in bilateral relations. Instead, he should continue pressing for fairer US access to India’s markets, while continuing to strengthen defense ties to support a strong Indian security presence in the Indo-Pacific. To this end, the conclusion of a Reciprocal Defense Procurement Agreement between the two countries is vital. For India to be an effective strategic partner against China, it must build up its military capability fast. It has been much too slow and lumbering in its military modernization. This would have the added benefit of taking India off the Russian teat, a development whose advantages should be obvious.
Furthermore, any differences with India should be discussed and resolved in private, the way Washington does with the UK or France. There is no point in publicly embarrassing and confronting the proud and prickly Indians in the way the irresponsible Justin Trudeau has done recently. Useless virtue-signaling does nothing to help the US deal with the acrid realities of a complex world.
Bangladesh
America’s top priority should be stability and a clear timeline for national elections. Bangladesh has been a bright spot in South Asia but the ugly tumult of this summer raises awkward questions about its path ahead. We need a stable, secular, economically successful Bangladesh in South Asia, one that is aligned with Washington’s Indo-Pacific strategy. The failure to sign onto that strategy was one of the many mistakes made by the ousted prime minister, Sheikh Hasina. Here, as elsewhere in the world, Washington must be aware that China is making deep inroads, and must act effectively to counteract Beijing.
Rubio should call on the interim rulers to hold elections without delay. Bangladesh is an instinctively democratic country and a rare Muslim-majority state with the potential to be a thriving secular democracy. Its elections should be inclusive, and there cannot be a ban on the party that led the country to independence. Pressure must be exerted to ensure that Islamists are kept out of government: any further erosion of the country’s fragile secularism could lead to widespread violence against the country’s substantial Hindu minority. (Bangladesh has the fourth-highest Muslim population in the world, after Indonesia, Pakistan, and India.) Whichever government emerges after the election must be encouraged strongly not to adopt an anti-India stance.
Pakistan
Pakistan needs to be managed, as it is an almost insoluble problem. The benighted country no longer has a frontline priority in US policy, but the Trump administration should seek to maintain some level of US influence in the backdrop of Pakistan’s “all-weather friendship” with China, which has greater control over policy here than in any other major country.
Again, to avoid pointless virtue-signaling, the US should ease up on rhetoric about democracy in Pakistan, a form of governance that doesn’t come naturally to the country and its people. The US must resign itself to the fact that Pakistan is more likely to have unfair elections than fair ones, and even if elections were fair, their outcome is unlikely to empower those seeking to bring Pakistan closer to the US rather than China, to end terrorism, and to normalize ties with India. What does the US gain from elections that bring to power an anti-American, anti-Indian, pro-Taliban demagogue?
Sri Lanka, The Maldives, and Nepal
These countries are relatively peripheral, but as with Latin America and Africa, countries ignored by the US fall all too readily into China’s lap.
US interests here, too, lie in preventing these countries getting too close to China. China has started to play a deeper political role in Nepal through close ties with the Nepalese Maoists. Nepal has taken several loans from China under the neo-colonial Belt and Road Initiative and that should be a concern for both India and the US. Similarly, Washington must work with India to ensure that the Sri Lankan port of Hambantota does not become a Chinese naval base. Tiny Maldives is prostrate from Chinese loans that it cannot pay back. China is encroaching brazenly on India’s turf. India does not have sufficient economic muscle to push back alone, but the US and India must work together to oust China from this strategic Indian Ocean archipelago.
