One afternoon this winter, at a cafe in central Tel Aviv, I happened to overhear a discussion of politics at a nearby table of older men, convened in their own “parliament.” After cursing both the government’s politicians and the inept opposition, several spoke in praise of Avigdor Lieberman, the former political outsider who speaks Hebrew with a heavy Russian accent. “In the end, there is no one like Yvette [Lieberman’s nickname, also his USSR birthname.] He was right about Hamas and about the need to draft the ultra-Orthodox [into the army.]. He is the most qualified to be the next prime minister,” one concluded. The others agreed.
Lieberman’s reputation has transformed in recent years. The former enfant terrible has become a trusted figure. His opposition party, currently at 6 Knesset seats, is projected in one recent poll to grow to 15 seats in the next elections).
How did that happen?
Lieberman’s rise is an immigrant’s story. Born in the Soviet Republic of Moldava in 1958, he immigrated to Israel in 1978 and, as a student at Hebrew University, joined the Likud party. He became close with the Likud’s rising star – Benjamin Netanyahu – and by 1996, became the director general of Prime MInister Netanyahu’s office. Lieberman brought into his political endeavors close connections to Austrian billionaire Martin Shluff (later investigated for illegal campaign finance) and Russian oligarchs. In 1999, Lieiberman started his own party – Yisrael Beiteinu (“Israel is Our Home”). Its base of support was the one million-plus new immigrants from the former Soviet Union, but Lieberman also reached out to other outsider groups – especially Mizrahi Jews – thereby imitating the successful electoral formula of the Likud Party itself.
During the 2000s, Lieberman became known for controversial right-wing positions, like the transfer to a future Palestinian state of some Israel Arab towns on the border of the West Bank with their residents, especially Umm al-Fahm. At the height of his popularity in 2009, Lieberman and party gained 15 seats and became a key building bloc of Netanyahu-led coalition governments; Lieberman became foreign minister. But both he and his party soon became mired in corruption scandals. There were stories about witnesses who disappeared after being intimidated. The exposure of a corruption ring in his closest circle led to a large loss of support in the 2015 Knesset elections. Many thought Lieberman would never recover.
They were wrong.
Lieberman played his limited electoral cards well after the 2015 elections, with his party holding only 5 seats. He gained the position of Minister of Defense, despite being ridiculed in the largely leftwing Israeli media for not serving in an elite unit and doing only one year of military service.
Lieberman as defense minister disagreed with many of Netanyahu’s policies, especially the perceived appeasement of Hamas. Netanyahu, his ministers, and many army generals believed at the time that Hamas was contained and would not cause major harm to Israel. For example, then minister of transport Yisrael Katz (now minister of defense), proposed building an airport and a seaport for Hamas in Gaza within a frame of a long-lasting ceasefire.
Lieberman presciently warned, in an 11-page top-secret document recently published in the press, that Hamas planned to burst through the border, overrun communities in southern Israel, and take hostages. He wrote: “Hamas intends to take the conflict into Israeli territory by sending a significant number of well-trained forces (like the Nukhba commandos for example) into Israel to try and capture an Israeli community (or maybe even several communities) on the Gaza border and take hostages. Beyond the physical harm to the people, this will also lead to significant harm to the morale and feelings of the citizens of Israel”.
Lieberman quit the government in December 2018 over a ceasefire deal that enabled Qatari dollars to be funneled into Gaza. While many observers believed it was merely a political stunt, Lieberman remained firm in his decision. Since then, he has repeatedly refused to rejoin Netanyahu-led coalitions if they also contained religious parties with accompanying concessions to their constituents. This principled stand gained him popularity beyond his traditional right-wing circles.
During the first days after October 7, 2023, the most horrific massacre in modern Israel’s history, videos of Lieberman’s earlier warnings against HAMAS went viral. “Lieberman was right” became a trending hashtag on X.
After months of intense fighting in Gaza, most Israelis realized Lieberman was also right about drafting ultra-Orthodox men into the military. Given his close personal relationship with Ariyah Deri, long-time leader of the ultra-Orthodox Shas party, many doubted the sincerity of Lieberman’s pledge to institute an ultra-Orthodox draft.
But after October 7, it became clear that Israel needed a larger army and more soldiers to address security needs. Recently, the IDF told the Supreme Court that it could perfectly accommodate all ultra-Orthodox men if the government drafted a bill allowing their conscription. It now seems that the issue of equality in military service and the struggle against the ultra-Orthodox draft exemption will become a hot topic during the next elections, with Lieberman’s party leading the charge.
Still, LIeberman’s party doesn’t yet reach the polling levels of Naftali Bennett and his hypothetical party, now showing at well over 20 Knesset seats in the polls. Bennett, however, has not announced his intention to form a party to compete in the next elections, and many recall his failure to keep his coalition together during his premiership of 2021-2022.
In Israeli politics, good things usually come to those who wait. Ariel Sharon succeeded in reinventing himself after his dismissal from politics following the 1982 Sabra and Shatile refugee camp affair. Yitzhak Rabin resigned his party leadership after badly losing an election in 1977 and then made a comeback in 1992. Netanyahu lost the 1999 elections and came back. Avigdor Lieberman has had a few serious blows in his political career, but now he seems to be a logical choice for Israelis looking for a center-right alternative to Naftali Bennett.
The next elections for the Knesset are not scheduled to take place until October 2026. But the impending end to the wars in Gaza and Lebanon could lead to early elections and the renewed rise of Mr. Lieberman.
