Pakistan’s nuclear rivalry with India began in earnest in May 1998, when Pakistan conducted five underground nuclear explosions. Since then, the two South Asian powers have further developed their nuclear arsenals, building and testing air, sea and land-launched missiles that can reach every corner of the other country. India holds an advantage in long-range ballistic missiles after it tested the “Agni-V” in 2013, which has a range of more than 5,000 kilometers, potentially reaching China. In response, Pakistan launched the “Shaheen-III” in 2015, a long-range ballistic missile with a range of up to 2,750 kilometers, and it continues to develop its missile program. At the same time, Pakistan has become closer to China. One question is how will Washington respond?
Security collaboration between Washington and Islamabad was for years a key element of “The Global War on Terror” against al-Qa’ida and its affiliates in South Asia. However, times appear to have changed. Concern with Pakistan’s nuclear-armed ballistic missile program, not counter-terrorism cooperation, was the focus of remarks by the Biden administration’s Jon Finer, principal deputy national security advisor, on December 19, 2024. “Pakistan will have the capability to strike targets well beyond South Asia, including in the United States,” he noted. It is too early to know in what direction the Trump administration will take relations with Pakistan.
A potential change in Washington’s view is not the only problem Pakistan faces. According to the Pak Institute for Peace Studies annual report, 521 terror attacks were carried out in 2024 in Pakistan, with 497 occurring in provinces bordering Afghanistan. Moreover, economic decline has followed the continuous political instability, as foreign debts pile up and the country has become more dependent on Chinese loans.
The Taliban
Since its formation in Pakistani madrasas, the Taliban has had close ties with Islamabad, both publicly before the American invasion and mostly secretly after it, which many labeled as the Pakistani “double game.” The Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) relationship with the Taliban gave Pakistan both a mediating influence between Afghanistan and the outside world and a regional security partner.
But Taliban relations have not gone according to plan for Islamabad. The Taliban started assisting the Pakistani Taliban (TTP), a brother militant group, in attacks on Pakistani soil. Initially, Islamabad used coercive diplomacy towards the Taliban. When diplomacy failed, Pakistan conducted airstrikes against TTP targets inside Afghanistan. However, the pro-Taliban attacks in Pakistan have only increased over time, leading to thousands of casualties. For instance, on December 21, 14 Pakistani soldiers were killed in a terrorist attack at a checkpoint in South Waziristan District, apparently conducted by the TTP. On November 21, 41 people were killed in an attack close to the Afghan border in Kurram. Islamabad retaliated with an airstrike in South Waziristan against TTP targets. In response, the Taliban attacked a few security points of the Pakistani security forces along the border, leaving an unconfirmed number of dead Pakistani soldiers.
Meanwhile, other militant groups challenge Islamabad. Baloch resistance groups like the Baluchistan Liberation Army (BLA) and the Khorasan branch of ISIS (ISIS-K) have attacked governmental targets in different areas of Pakistan. Even neighboring Iran tested Pakistan’s sovereignty by conducting an “anti-terror” attack inside Pakistan’s Baluchistan province in January 2024 without Pakistani permission.
India
Despite cultural and religious ties between Afghanistan and Pakistan, India’s growing engagement with the Taliban regime in Afghanistan could change the regional balance of power which, given that these are two nuclear rivals, would be a threat to global security.
China
Some of the terrorist attacks in Pakistan are aimed at Chinese workers engaged in China’s infrastructure and mining projects. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, estimated at $62 billion in investments, intends to connect China to the Middle East through the Indian Ocean port of Gwadar in Pakistan. For Pakistan, this project is an economic necessity; delays in its implementation have increased Pakistan’s $16 billion debt to China. Pakistan’s economy is struggling, even after International Monetary Fund bailout packages.
Some observers believe the Trump administration will take a hard line with Pakistan, especially given the ever closer borrowing ties binding Pakistan to China. But Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal and ballistic missile program argue for Washington to engage with Pakistan. The nature and direction of that engagement will be important for global security.
