From Chechnya to Ukraine, from Moscow’s weakened diplomacy to the rise of open-source intelligence, Christian Caryl sees a Russian system far more fragile than it appears.
In this five-part conversation with Jacob Heilbrunn, the Foreign Policy Magazine columnist explains how Putin’s vulnerabilities are multiplying: Ramzan Kadyrov’s uncertain future, Ukraine’s drone warfare deep inside Russia, Moscow’s dependence on China, Europe’s energy emancipation, and the growing power of a pluralistic Ukrainian democracy on Russia’s border.
Behind the image of control, Caryl describes a chaotic, corrupt and volatile system.
Authoritarian regimes can endure.
But they can also crack suddenly.
Christian Caryl Decodes Putin’s Fragile Empire
by
June 2026
Recent Articles
An Intruder Between Abraham and Cyrus
Can the Mecca Pact Reshape the Middle East? The Mecca Joint Defence Agreement between Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Pakistan has been presented as a historic step toward Muslim collective security. Signed on August 7, 2026, the agreement declares that an armed attack on one member will be regarded as an attack on all three. Yet […]
Demystifying agentic AI
Everyone wants an AI strategy. Almost nobody wants to first figure out whether they need AI at all. A couple of weeks ago, the CEO of a non-profit organization called me. “Esti, you understand AI, right?” Well, no one really understands AI, I told her, but I asked what I could do to help. She […]
China's Plausible Deniability Doctrine in the Middle East
China insists it is a neutral actor in the Middle East. However, recent reports suggesting it is helping Iran rebuild its air defenses tell a very different story. Whether those reports are ultimately confirmed is almost beside the point. The real story lies in the widening gap between Beijing’s diplomatic rhetoric and its strategic behavior. […]
