Will President Trump agree to enter into renewed nuclear negotiations with Iran that allow Iran to avoid Israeli airstrikes?
According to the Institute for Science and International Security, Iran is around six months away from being able to build a crude nuclear bomb, and likely several more months from having a nuclear warhead on a missile.
Recent American arms sales to Israel, combined with unconfirmed reports of massive bunker buster bomb deliveries to Israel, suggest that Israel is continuing to upgrade its long-range strike capabilities against Iran’s nuclear facilities.
President Donald Trump has expressed a preference for diplomacy over military action, while using Israel as a threat. He has reapplied an economic sanctions campaign of maximum pressure on Iran’s economy. The American message to Iran: Disband your nuclear program, or face Israeli airstrikes.
Preparations to Bomb Iranian Nuclear Sites
Israel is deeply suspicious of Iranian attempts to once again buy itself time – and legitimacy – with nuclear talks. But any disagreement between Washington and Jerusalem over Iran has been quietly handled behind closed doors. Publicly, Jerusalem and Washington present a united front.
On February 7, the US State Department approved a major arms sale to Israel worth $6.75 billion, including thousands of precision-guided munitions such as JDAM guidance kits and Small Diameter Bombs (SDB-I). On February 16, a vessel carrying MK-84 900 kilogram munitions was unloaded at the Israeli port of Ashdod and transferred to Israeli bases. Defense Minister Israel Katz described the shipment as a “significant asset for the Air Force and the IDF.”
Even more relevant to Iran’s underground nuclear sites, like the uranium enrichment facilities of Natanz and Fordow, would be the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator, a 30,000-pound precision-guided bunker-buster bomb capable of penetrating deeply buried nuclear sites. If the US delivered them to Israel, they would enable the IDF to powerfully target Iran’s underground nuclear infrastructure.
The US is also due (timeline not fully clear yet) to supply Israel with Boeing KC-46A refuelers, although Israel is already equipped with its own, smaller Boeing 707 refueling aircraft.
Despite common assumptions to the contrary, the possibility of Israel producing its own version of such heavy bombs – MK84 – cannot be ruled out with its advanced industrial defense base.
The Israeli Air Force has been actively preparing for a potential order to strike, after weakening Iran’s air defenses with targeted airstrikes on April 19, 2024. Iran still possesses a large ballistic missile arsenal capable of striking Israel, US bases in the region and Gulf Arab oil installations.
Efforts at Diplomacy
Alongside these military preparations, President Trump has reiterated his preference for negotiations with Iran. In an interview with the New York Post on February 8, Trump stated, “I would like a deal done with Iran on non-nuclear. I would prefer that to bombing the hell out of it.” He emphasized that a negotiated agreement could prevent an Israeli strike, suggesting that diplomacy remains his preferred approach.
However, Trump also acknowledged the possibility of escalation.
The official Iranian response has been mixed but appears designed to signal to the Americans that negotiations are very much on the table.
On February 5, a day after Trump signed an executive order to intensify sanctions enforcement against Iran, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi responded, saying concerns about Iran developing nuclear weapons “are not a complicated issue and can be resolved given Tehran’s opposition to weapons of mass destruction.” This is a reference to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s supposed oral fatwa of 2003 against weapons of mass destruction, which is contradicted by Iran’s actual massive investment in weapons-grade nuclear infrastructure. In any case, a fatwa can be easily reversed. An Iranian ayatollah in the city of Qom has already called for it to be cancelled – a call that presumably could not be issued without prior coordination with the Iranian regime.
Meanwhile, Iran’s Supreme Leader rejected the idea of negotiations with the US on February 7, stating, “Negotiating with such a government should not be done; it is neither wise, intelligent nor honorable.” This rejection, when taken together with Aragchi’s comments, appears to be a standard exercise in Iranian maximalist opening negotiation tactics.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has taken a firm stance on Iran, stating on February 5, “Trump said Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon, and we fully agree with that.”
Iran’s Economic Situation
Iran faces a worsening economic crisis. Since November 2024, rolling blackouts have been reported across major cities, as Tehran struggles with severe energy shortages. Iran’s electricity grid, heavily reliant on natural gas, has been forced to burn high-sulfur fuel oil, exacerbating pollution and public discontent. This economic vulnerability could make Iran more receptive to negotiations, despite Khamenei’s public rejection of talks.
But economic pressure alone is unlikely to prove sufficient to drag Iran back to nuclear negotiations.
Iran has ways to bypass sanctions. China, its largest oil customer, continues to purchase Iranian crude. A report from the Atlantic Council from March last year noted that China’s “Axis of Evasion” strategy has allowed Iran to sustain its economy by circumventing sanctions through illicit oil sales. Additionally, Iran benefits financially from arms deals with Russia, and could receive Russian nuclear assistance following Russian reliance on Iranian drone and missile supplies for its war against Ukraine.
Iran can use its China not just to bypass sanctions, but also to assist its weapons industry. According to a CNN report of February 13, the first of two Chinese vessels is enroute to Iran, carrying a chemical needed by Iran to make solid missile propellant. The April 19 IAF strike on Iran severely damaged Iran’s solid fuel storage facility.
Next Steps
An Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities could provoke Iranian retaliation, including disruptions to Gulf oil trade, sending global oil prices through the roof.
The stakes are high, but both Israel and the US are signaling determination to prevent Iran’s nuclear program from moving towards the final nuclear production stage. The question of how this will be done remains ambiguous.
While Trump prefers negotiations, Israel continues to prepare for military contingencies. With US arms sales bolstering Israeli capabilities and Iran facing economic and military vulnerabilities, the likelihood of military action remains high. If negotiations fail, Israel will be left with no choice but to act decisively against Iran’s nuclear program, unless Iran agrees to disband its nuclear program in the way that Libya did.
