The Putin Problem
The Trump administration entered office with two complementary goals concerning Russia. The first, the humanitarian goal of ending Russia’s war with Ukraine, does not seem close to being achieved. The administration proposed a ceasefire between the two countries as a first step toward terminating the conflict, but while Ukraine accepted the proposal, Russia did not. […]
The Middle East As Informational Battlefield
Once upon a time, the Middle Eastern media environment was predictable and staid, dominated by a few prominent outlets that in Arab countries were often owned and operated by the governments’ information ministries. No longer. Over the past three decades, the region has witnessed an explosion in information and connectivity. In the 1990s and 2000s, […]
A New World Order
The war in Ukraine is leading to a seismic geopolitical shift, reshaping the global order. At its fulcrum stands Donald Trump, the champion of “America First” who is asserting Washington’s dominance on his own terms. Opposing him, Europe remains trapped in the inertia of its post-Cold War illusions, struggling to adjust to a world where […]
Pakistan’s Fragility – An Early Test for the Trump Administration?
Pakistan’s nuclear rivalry with India began in earnest in May 1998, when Pakistan conducted five underground nuclear explosions. Since then, the two South Asian powers have further developed their nuclear arsenals, building and testing air, sea and land-launched missiles that can reach every corner of the other country. India holds an advantage in long-range ballistic […]
What Does China Want?
The military forces of the People’s Republic are formidable. What are Beijing’s plans for them? What does China want in the world? Surely no question has greater importance for the year — and indeed the decade — ahead. The country’s communist government has used China’s remarkably rapid economic growth over the last four decades to amass […]
US – China Competition: Food Security and the FAO
The United States had a rude awakening when China secured the head job at the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). It is an important outpost of Chinese influence in the multilateral system and now China seeks to extend its influence there. In 2019, the Chinese government candidate for director general of the FAO, former vice […]
Rethinking American-Chinese Competition in the Global South
Imagine a world where China buys all the mines in Africa, further solidifying its dominance over the production of rare earth minerals. Imagine if the entire Global South’s telecommunication networks were controlled by Huawei, subsea fiber-optic cables are nearly exclusively built or repaired by China’s HMN Technologies. Imagine the bulk of maritime trade passes through […]
The Future of the US-China Relationship
The US-China relationship faces certain tension and rising competition over the next four years. While it is impossible in general to predict specific new administration policies, there are likely to be wide swings between efforts to engage China and seek compromise, with efforts to compete, confront, or even contain Beijing. President Trump will be surrounded by […]
A South Asia Roadmap
As the incoming Trump administration turns its gaze outward, it will find a world that is rudderless in many places, often stagnant and bereft, in no small measure owing to the abdication of any meaningful leadership from the United States that began under Barack Obama. In large parts of the world—Latin America, for instance, and […]
The Axis of Expansionists
Military aggressions and provocations by China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea have created one of the most dangerous security environments in decades. Making matters worse, these powers are supporting each other in their malign actions. How should we refer to this emerging bloc? Russia is waging war to make Ukraine its colony again. Iran has […]
