A Cold Peace in Peril?
Israel-Egypt peace was carefully constructed in the 1979 treaty and has weathered numerous regional storms: the 1982 Lebanon War, two Palestinian intifadas, the upheaval of the 2011 Arab Spring, and even sixteen months of conflict in Gaza. Throughout, Israel and Egypt have sustained generally productive military and economic cooperation (despite persistent anti-Israeli sentiment in the […]
Trump’s Gaza Plan: Change of Narrative
Washington’s Middle East experts were gathered for dinner in the ballroom of the Ritz Carlton Georgetown, hosted by a prominent think tank. It was May 19, 2019, and they had come to hear Jared Kushner talk about the forthcoming Trump peace plan. Mr. Kushner described both an economic vision for the Middle East and a […]
Beware Trump’s Wrath Over a Failed Ceasefire Agreement in Gaza
This week’s release of three Israeli female hostages and 900 Palestinian prisoners and detainees, primarily women and children, is the first step in what is expected to be a long process of bringing home Israel’s hostages and ending the war with Hamas. The agreement provides for three phases, the first two of which involve more […]
After the Gaza Ceasefire, Watch the West Bank
Hamas has plans for the West Bank. Now that there is a ceasefire in Gaza, Hamas wants to use the war it launched against Israel to bring itself more power and influence in the West Bank. It seeks to gain popularity through the prisoner releases secured in exchange for Israeli hostages – between thirty and fifty Palestinian […]
Update on the War in Gaza – <br>Israel Re-engages Northern Gaza After Eight–Month Absence
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF), after 15 months of war in Gaza, are fighting in areas of northern Gaza that didn’t see IDF soldiers for eight months, between March – October 2024. The November 27 ceasefire in Lebanon, if it continues to hold, will free up further forces to re-engage in Gaza. But Hamas also […]
Lawfare Against Israeli Soldiers
Israeli tourist Yuval Vagdani had to escape for the second time. On October 7, 2023, he survived the Hamas massacre at the Nova music festival near Gaza. Then in the first week of January 2025, he escaped Brazil ahead of a court-ordered investigation into his service as a military reservist in Gaza. He was vacationing […]
Trump Administration Faces a Suddenly Promising Middle East
BACKGROUND The second Trump administration will face immediate foreign policy dilemmas in all three Eurasian fronts. This paper concentrates on the Middle East, but the competing demands of Europe and East Asia, and the links among all of them, influence decisions everywhere. The dramatic events of the past year open the door to a regional […]
Under Lula, Brazil Aims High But Falls Short
When Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva returned to Brazil’s presidency in 2023, it was clear that he wished to restore the high international profile which Brazil had enjoyed during his first two terms, 2003-2010. International expectations were high given that his predecessor, Jair Bolsonaro, had been largely uninterested in foreign policy. However, Lula has faced […]
From Dahiya to Damascus: A Pivotal Moment for Iran’s Regional Strategy
Just three weeks ago, thousands of Hizbullah fighters, commanders, and activists were killed or injured in Israeli “pager” attacks. Next the terrorist organization’s top leaders, including Secretary General Hasan Nasrallah, were eliminated in Israeli airstrikes. Then, after Israeli warplanes bombarded Hizbullah’s stronghold in Beirut and bases in southern Lebanon, Israel invaded with two divisions, aiming […]
Two State Solution <br> Temporarily Closed for Renovations
Four months after October 7, 2023 I met an Egyptian acquaintance, and we tried to make sense of the situation. He offered the thought that “the two-state solution was never as relevant as it is now. Everyone understands that the Palestinian issue is back on the global agenda, and it is understood that there is no […]
