Trump Administration Faces a Suddenly Promising Middle East
BACKGROUND The second Trump administration will face immediate foreign policy dilemmas in all three Eurasian fronts. This paper concentrates on the Middle East, but the competing demands of Europe and East Asia, and the links among all of them, influence decisions everywhere. The dramatic events of the past year open the door to a regional […]
Israel’s Actions against Hizbullah in Lebanon: Part of a Global Confrontation
Israel’s confrontation with Iran and its proxy armies, including the current operation against Hizbullah by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), should be seen as part of a broader global struggle. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that began in February 2022 was the first sign of a new geostrategic era, and the October 2023 mass murder invasion […]
Israel Pulls An Economic Lever on Lebanon
In October 2022, Israel and Lebanon sent separate commitments on a common maritime border to the United States. The deal was structured in this fashion, rather than as a bilateral agreement, to accommodate the government of Lebanon, which refused to sign anything directly with Israel. The maritime border deal was intended to allow each country […]
From Dahiya to Damascus: A Pivotal Moment for Iran’s Regional Strategy
Just three weeks ago, thousands of Hizbullah fighters, commanders, and activists were killed or injured in Israeli “pager” attacks. Next the terrorist organization’s top leaders, including Secretary General Hasan Nasrallah, were eliminated in Israeli airstrikes. Then, after Israeli warplanes bombarded Hizbullah’s stronghold in Beirut and bases in southern Lebanon, Israel invaded with two divisions, aiming […]
Israel Strikes Hizbullah: What Comes Next for Lebanon
Israel’s recent military actions in Lebanon and Gaza have fundamentally shifted the balance of power in the Middle East to the detriment of the Iranian-led axis and to the benefit of the American-aligned axis of Israel and Arab states, some of which have, with quiet Saudi approval, gambled on relations with the Jewish state to […]
Lebanon: A Country Held Hostage by Hizbullah, in Desperate Need of Liberation
Lebanon today stands paralyzed, held hostage by a terrorist organization that has entrenched itself into the country’s political and social fabric. The country was not always besieged by extremism and foreign interference. In the 1970s, Beirut was hailed as the “Paris of the Middle East,” a thriving hub of culture, literature, and intellectualism, home to […]
The Wars in Gaza and Ukraine Are the Same War
The deep partisan divisions in the United States affect many public issues, including the ongoing wars in Europe and the Middle East. The Israeli war of self-defense in Gaza commands strong support among Republicans but elicits less enthusiasm among Democrats. By contrast, Democrats generally endorse Ukraine’s war of self-defense against Russia, following the lead of […]
Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran – How Should Israel Prioritize Enemy Arenas?
Israel faces a strategic dilemma regarding prioritization of the multiple arenas of attacks it faces across the region: Can it continue to prioritize Gaza while maintaining the current low tempo of operations in Lebanon and preparing for responses from Iran? In Gaza, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) has made significant progress since the Hamas invasion […]
Assuring Deterrence in the Mediterranean
It is springtime in the Mediterranean, as cruise ships busily make their way from port to port in some of the popular tourist destinations like Lisbon, Naples, the Adriatic Coast, and the Greek Isles. The Med looks peaceful to the people in the lounge chairs of those ships. However, such tranquility is only guaranteed by […]
Offensive Cyber Operations As a Tool of War
Cyberspace has become a major domain for organized crime as well as for statecraft in the twenty-first century. Israel has become a top global cyber power. But cyber offense is no silver bullet. What Is a Cyber-Attack? A senior JPMorgan executive made headlines at the recent Davos gathering: “people are trying to hack into JPMorgan […]
