In Gaza, Israel Can Win the War But Not the Peace

Largest Hamas tunnel in Gaza uncovered by Israeli troops, a few hundred metres from the Erez border crossing. The underground passage is part of an extensive network stretching over 2.5 miles (4km), according to the Israeli army, December 2023, Photo credit: Israel Defense Forces/Cover Imag via Reuters Connect.

The Israeli military can prevent more attacks like the one on October 7, but achieving genuine peace depends on the Palestinians. Two major questions loom over the ongoing Israeli military operation in the Gaza Strip: can the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) achieve their military goals there? And can postwar political arrangements that will make future […]

Israel Shifts Tactics in Gaza

Israeli soldiers in the Gaza Strip, January 2024. Photo credit: Israel Defense Forces/Handout via REUTERS.

Three months into the war in Gaza ,with the defeat of most of the Hamas battalions in northern Gaza, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) is preparing for a new phase of fighting. The new phase will focus on removing terrorist infrastructure in northern and central Gaza. It will include continued battles in and around Khan […]

Sisi’s Struggles: Egypt Faces a Widening Set of Challenges

President Abd Al-Fattah al-Sisi. Photo credit: Jakub Porzycki via Reuters Connect.

The grand opening ceremony of Egypt’s new National Museum, reportedly the world’s largest museum space, was postponed. President Abd Al-Fattah al-Sisi had hoped to invite world leaders to gather in Giza outside Cairo, with the Pyramids as the backdrop, and give a boost to both tourism and himself as he begins a third term in […]

Next Steps in the Red Sea: Offense, Not Just Defense

USS Carney (DDG 64) defeats a combination of Houthi missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles in the Red Sea, October 19, 2023. Photo Credit: U.S. Navy/Cover Images via Reuters Connect.

Recent events in the transit lanes of the Red Sea have underscored the need for international action to restore freedom of navigation for commercial shipping traffic. Attacks on commercial ships by the Iranian proxy Houthi regime in Yemen have become a daily occurrence, not seen since Iran’s attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf from […]

The Gaza War and East Asia

Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, President of the United Arab Emirates and Fumio Kishida, Prime Minister of Japan, during an official reception in Abu Dhabi, July 17, 2023. Photo credit: Ryan Carter/UAE Presidential Court via REUTERS.

What can be said about the impact of current developments in the Middle East on East Asia?  The most compelling current development is obviously the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, which has dominated the headlines for two months and will do so for many more months to come.  War arouses strong emotions. […]

Why is Israel unable to explain the war in Gaza to the world?

A Palestinian refugee watching Gaza news on television in Bourj al-Barajneh Refugee Camp in Beirut, Lebanon, October 25, 2023. Photo credit: REUTERS/Amr Alfiky.

The scope of the massacres committed by Hamas terrorists and Gazan civilians in southern Israel on October 7 deeply shocked Israeli society. In the aftermath of October 7 Israel was shocked a second time – by multiple denials of the massacre, the indifference to Israeli women who were raped and Israeli children who were kidnapped, […]

From Pause Back to Fighting: Report from the Gaza Front

Israeli soldiers in the Gaza Strip, December 2023. Photo credit: Israel Defense Forces/Handout via REUTERS.

Israel used the pause in fighting from November 24 to December 1 to prepare for a new round of operations in Gaza. This became clear as Israeli units began on December 3 to assault Khan Yunis, the major city in southern Gaza.  >> Reports from the Gaza Front: Read more from Seth J. Frantzman On […]

Why is It So Difficult for Israel to Decipher Hamas?

Hamas militants. Photo credit: Shutterstock / Abed Rahim Khatib.

As they were marching towards Jerusalem, the knights of the First Crusade lay siege to the city of Antioch in southern Anatolia from October 1097 to June 1098. They were approached there by envoys of the Fatimid dynasty ruling Egypt, who offered the Crusaders a plan to cooperate against the Seljuk state then in possession […]

The Intelligence Failure of October 7 – Roots and Lessons

Hamas troops break down the Gaza border fence on October 7, allowing Gazans to cross into Israel. Photo credit: REUTERS.

Hamas’ sudden attack on the kibbutzim and the towns neighboring the Gaza Strip caught the IDF and the country by total surprise. During the first 24 hours, beginning at 6:30 in the morning of October 7, the Hamas Nukhba (name of the commando troops, means “elite”) and those who came in with them conquered and […]