Over the past few years, Israel has won tremendous victories. It has neutered Hamas and Hezbollah. It has defanged Iran, which has for decades been Israel’s most powerful antagonist. And it is now unquestionably the strongest country in the Middle East. Israel’s strategic outlook has never been brighter.
But Israel’s might masks vulnerabilities in public opinion. In the aftermath of the October 7 attacks, anti-Israel sentiment has erupted across the West. Anti-Zionist demonstrations spread throughout the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Australia, Canada, and elsewhere. These protesters weren’t merely a noisy minority. Public opinion has dramatically turned against Israel in those countries.
The same is true of the United States. According to a Pew study released April 7, 60 percent of Americans view Israel unfavorably. This is remarkable. A strong majority of Americans, arguably the most pro-Israel people on earth, now disapprove of the Jewish state.
Democrats are especially hostile. Four-fifths of them view Israel unfavorably. That so many do is unsurprising given the increasingly anti-Israel posture of the Democratic Party. What may come as a surprise is that Democrats aren’t alone in their disaffection with Israel. The Pew study shows 41 percent of Republicans view it unfavorably. Among Republicans aged 18–49, the share reaches 57 percent. A massive number of Republicans have soured on Israel.
The arithmetic augurs poorly for the U.S.-Israel relationship. America is by far Israel’s greatest friend. It provides billions of dollars in military assistance each year. American weapons are widespread throughout the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). The United States is Israel’s largest trade partner and is a prolific investor in its high-tech sector. It also shields Israel politically by vetoing anti-Israel resolutions at the United Nations Security Council. Israel has long made a close relationship with the United States its top foreign policy priority, and for good reason. Yet the considerable benefits it derives from partnering with America could be in jeopardy.
Imagine what might happen if a Democrat enters the White House in January 2029. The party’s presidential nomination contest could very well be the most anti-Israel ever, with candidates trying to outduel each other for the anti-Zionist vote. Once in office, a Democratic president might punish Israel. He could stop weapons sales, as many Democratic senators have voted to do. He could sanction the Israeli prime minister and other government officials. He could designate the IDF as a foreign terrorist organization. He could direct his administration to vote against Israel at the UN. He could pressure American firms to do less business with Israel or sever ties altogether. Hostility to Israel among the Democratic grassroots could beget hostile policies.
A taste of these policies came from the Biden administration. It withheld arms deliveries to Israel, reportedly because of concerns about the humanitarian situation in Gaza. It criticized Israel’s wartime conduct. It sanctioned Israeli “settlers” in the West Bank. Even so, the Biden administration did not go as far as many wanted. An old-school Democrat, Biden had been very supportive of Israel throughout his political career and as president rejected some of the strongest anti-Israeli impulses in his party.
As time goes on, expect Democrats to be even more anti-Israel. Older Democrats like Biden who have strong pro-Israel instincts are giving way to a new generation of progressives who loathe the Jewish state. It is hard to see them pressing for anything but anti-Israel policies as they take center stage in Democratic politics.
There are causes for concern on the Republican side as well. To be sure, a majority of Republicans still support Israel. In Washington, pro-Israel Republicans far outnumber anti-Israel Republicans. President Trump himself is an enthusiastic supporter of Israel. That said, a contingent of Republicans is increasingly critical, if not antagonistic. Joe Kent, who recently resigned as director of the National Counterterrorism Center, has spread anti-Israel conspiracies. He isn’t alone. Conservative influencers like Candace Owens have legions of followers who applaud them for their anti-Israel content. Anti-Zionism has growing purchase in Republican politics.
Americans aren’t as receptive to pro-Israel arguments as they used to be. The decline of Christianity, and especially evangelical Christianity, has weakened Christian Zionism. The fact that the Holocaust, of which very few Americans have any personal recollections, ended 81 years ago has eroded the case for Jewish sovereignty. Just because the United States has been a pro-Israel country doesn’t mean it will be in the future.
If both parties turn on Israel, it has much to lose strategically and politically. Unless trends reverse, the Jewish state risks losing its greatest ally and best friend. The consequences would be felt for generations.
