The abrupt fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime alters the power dynamics in the Near East, including the United States, Russia, Israel, Iran and Turkey.
Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu wasted no time. The Israel Defense Forces seized the Syrian side of Mt. Hermon, giving it control over the tallest peak along the borderlands of Israel, Lebanon, Syria and Jordan – a perch to detect and strike Hizbullah from any place it could launch rocket attacks on Israel.
The US used the chaos to launch some 75 airstrikes against ISIS-affiliated forces in central Syria – crippling the ability of that terrorist organization to attack the 900 American troops based in Syria and weakening its ability to take a seat at the table of the new coalition that will rule Syria.
Russia has suffered a significant setback. Assad has sought asylum in Moscow with his family while Russian sailors and airmen have fled. If Russia permanently loses its naval and air bases in Syria, its ability to influence events in the Middle East or to quickly supply its forces and proxies in Sudan and across Africa will go with them. Russia has lost its last Arab ally and is losing much of its prestige across the global south.
However, Russia is unlikely to abandon its strategic foothold and will seek a way to preserve its bases. Russia’s access to the Mediterranean remains a strategic priority, and it will continue to seek a role in shaping the region’s politics.
The biggest loser is Iran. For years, Syria was a linchpin in the Tehran-Damascus-Beirut axis, a transmission belt that allowed Iran to feed militants, weapons, and money to Hezbollah in Lebanon and extend Iran’s influence to the Mediterranean shores. Now, those relationships are being rewritten.
Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, who heads the rebel forces that seized Damascus, spoke on December 8 at the historic, immensely symbolic Umayyad Mosque there. He decried “Iranian ambitions” that have levelled millions of Syrian homes and displaced nearly three million Syrians. He seemed to be signaling that Iran and its proxies, including Hizbullah, will play no role in Syria’s future. And the crowd roared its approval.
Hizbullah, already grappling with the repercussions of Lebanon’s economic crisis and its draining confrontation with Israel, could now be isolated and decimated by Israel.It is the internationally designated terrorist group that has killed more Americans than any other militant Islamist group except al-Qa’ida.
In neighboring Iraq, Assad’s fall stresses many hidden fault lines. The Syria-Iraq border, a critical segment of Iran’s regional corridor to the Mediterranean, is now a contested zone as pro-Iranian militias battle Kurdish and other rebel groups. Baghdad may reassess its relationship with Tehran, particularly as Iraq navigates its own internal dynamics and seeks to maintain a balance between competing regional powers, particularly Turkey and Israel.
Assad’s fall presents an opportunity for other regional players, particularly Turkey and Israel, to advance their strategic objectives.
Turkey supported certain rebel factions and is now positioning itself to consolidate influence in northern Syria. By establishing a sphere of control in the region, Ankara aims to counter the aspirations of Syrian Kurdish groups, which it views as a direct threat to its national security. This strategy aligns with Turkey’s long-standing goal of preventing Kurdish autonomy near its borders while enhancing its leverage in shaping Syria’s future.
Turkey’s president Erdogan has navigated a shifting and often contradictory approach to the Syrian conflict, transitioning from being an ally of Assad to demanding his removal, and later seeking normalization with the regime. Erdogan has a rare opportunity to shape the post-conflict order in Damascus. However, Turkey’s ambitions may encounter resistance, particularly from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the dominant Islamist faction in northern Syria. Its leader, who adopted the nom de guerre “al-Jolani” as a nod to the Golan Heights (and reportedly because his parents come from there) does not share Turkey’s broader goals.
For Israel, Assad’s ouster represents a significant strategic shift. For years, Jerusalem has pursued an aggressive campaign to weaken Iran’s entrenchment in Syria, conducting targeted strikes on Iranian infrastructure and pro-Tehran militias. Assad’s fall can be seen as a culmination of these efforts, as the collapse of his regime dismantles a critical node in Iran’s regional network.
However, Assad’s removal also introduces new uncertainties for Israel. While the Assad regime, under both Bashar and his father, Hafez, was adversarial, it maintained stability along the Syrian-Israeli frontier. The prospect of an Islamist-led government in Damascus, particularly one with ideological ambitions tied to the Golan Heights, presents a more unpredictable and potentially volatile challenge for Israel’s security strategy.
For the United States, Assad’s fall comes amid a broader shift in Washington’s Middle East strategy. President-elect Trump has emphasized a policy of restraint, saying that Syria’s future should be determined by Syrians. While there is likely to be a temptation within the American policy community to assist in building a more democratic and just Syria, Trump clearly wants to avoid direct involvement in Syria’s internal struggles.
Instead, Trump should focus on strengthening regional alliances to contain Iran and support stability. Initiatives such as expanding the Abraham Accords and promoting a potential “Middle East NATO” reflect Washington’s intent to play a supportive but limited role, emphasizing indirect engagement rather than direct intervention.
The fall of Assad not only marks the end of an authoritarian regime but also heralds the beginning of a transformative era in the Middle East. The Syrians are celebrating because they can see the potential for a peaceful and relatively prosperous future – if their neighbors and their own social divisions allow it to happen.
If the Syrians can establish stability and good governance, the wars in both Syria and Lebanon will end. For now, Syria’s fate remains in flux, while the ripple effects of Assad’s fall could re-order the Middle East. With vision and patience, a new Near East could be born.
