Iran until recently was a paradox: a deeply unpopular regime that appeared superficially stable. Three years after the massive nationwide protests of 2022, Iran’s streets were calm, though signs of discontent were starting to resurface, with scattered strikes and business closures, including unrest among truck drivers. Most Iranians despised the Islamic Republic; their quietude was strategic, not ideological.
This illusion of calm was shattered on June 13 when Israel launched precision strikes across Iran, destroying key Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) bases, military command centers, and nuclear facilities. Top commanders were killed. Footage of mushroom-like clouds and flattened barracks has flooded Iranian social media, sparking widespread fear and, in some areas, quiet celebration. For many Iranians, this was the first time the regime’s invincibility had been visibly called into question.
Behind the Recent Calm
Iran’s fate ultimately rests with a silent majority, what Iranians call the “gray zone” population (قشر خاکستری ). These are ordinary citizens: teachers, shopkeepers, bureaucrats, mid-level civil servants, and even some within the security apparatus who neither publicly oppose nor enthusiastically support the regime. Their silence reflects self-preservation, not loyalty. Every modern revolution has hinged upon similar groups. When these individuals sense regime collapse is imminent, their withdrawal of passive support becomes decisive.
Consider the psychology behind this silence. Decades of brutal crackdowns, from the Green Movement in 2009 to the Woman, Life, Freedom uprising in 2022, have conditioned many Iranians into a psychological state known as “learned helplessness.” When people repeatedly witness their protests crushed and their loved ones imprisoned or killed, they internalize a sense of futility. They have not stopped wanting freedom; they have stopped believing their actions can achieve it.
After three days of the regime’s visible weakening, under Israeli strikes, Iranians have not flooded the streets. Sources inside Iran suggest caution rather than indifference. People are closely watching to see if this external pressure will persist or fade. Fear of a violent crackdown remains real. Memories of brutal suppression are fresh. Private conversations reveal that the Iranian public broadly favors regime change but seeks clear signs that international pressure will back them this time. They also seek signs of internal fractures within the security forces or high-level defections.
The political theorist Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann described a “spiral of silence” created by oppressive regimes. When dissenters perceive themselves as isolated, fear keeps them from speaking out. Iranian authorities rely on arbitrary arrests, executions, and sophisticated surveillance precisely to maintain this silence. Yet beneath such silence simmers anger, awaiting a credible trigger to erupt. For many, the destruction of military headquarters and the death of senior IRGC figures may be that signal. Reports from Tehran, Shiraz, and Isfahan suggest that even among the gray-zone population, a sense of irreversible change is growing. Psychological control by the regime has limits, as seen in moments of spontaneous nationwide defiance.
Now, with IRGC command structures partially dismantled and elite commanders eliminated, cracks are appearing. Sources inside Iran report local confusion among military ranks and signs of hesitation in enforcing curfews. Yet, for many in this group, moving from passive to active opposition depends on sustained momentum. The cost-benefit calculus for the silent majority – especially those within the state – has shifted, yet they continue to watch cautiously for further signs of regime vulnerability.
Inside Iran, reactions to Israel’s military actions are complex but revealing. While state media decry Israeli aggression, privately many Iranians express relief or even cautious approval. Social media commentary from within the country shows that ordinary Iranians see Israel’s actions not as attacks against the nation but against the oppressive structures of the regime. These nuanced views, carefully voiced in encrypted chats and indirect online comments, indicate a growing gap between regime narratives and public sentiment.
What is to Be Done
What the Iranian people expect from the free world is consistent moral clarity alongside targeted pressure on the regime’s core oppressive machinery. Israel’s military strikes are ongoing, and they must remain focused on regime targets. Civilian infrastructure, particularly energy and public services, must remain off-limits to avoid unnecessary suffering among ordinary Iranians
Coordinated actions by Western nations could turn the tide decisively against the regime, translating current frustrations into actionable rebellion.
- Implement existing oil sanctions rigorously to deny Tehran critical financial lifelines. Aggressively target and dismantle third-party oil brokerage networks, particularly those operating through China, Russia, and regional intermediaries. The regime must feel economically isolated, not merely inconvenienced. America’s European allies should immediately trigger the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action’s snapback mechanism at the UN Security Council to reimpose expired sanctions and restrict Iran’s access to weapons systems. Simultaneously, Washington should press for international designation of the IRGC as a terrorist organization, building on existing US designations and encouraging alignment from the EU, UK, and regional partners.
These moves would not only isolate the regime legally and financially but would also reinforce the message to the Iranian people that the world sees their oppressors for what they are, perpetrators of terrorism.
- Yet sanctions alone are not enough. Breaking the regime’s coercive machinery – especially the IRGC and the regular Iranian military (Artesh) – is critical. While senior IRGC commanders remain ideologically and financially tethered to the regime, many lower-ranking personnel are driven more by national duty or economic necessity than by fanaticism. During recent protests, disobedience and moral hesitation among these ranks revealed cracks in loyalty. A targeted psychological campaign offering safety, dignity, and a role in a post-regime future could decisively erode the regime’s ability to suppress unrest. The battle is not over ideas but over perception, specifically, whether or not regime change is possible and near.
Therefore, target rank-and-file members of the IRGC and Artesh. Offer credible avenues for defection and rehabilitation. These efforts, drawing from Cold War models, could include trusted messengers, strategic planning, and clear post-defection guarantees.
- Address the Iranian silent majority through Persian-language platforms, consistently messaging that silence perpetuates suffering and that regime collapse is both imminent and desirable. Empowering this silent majority will create internal paralysis for the regime, hastening its demise. Success hinges on repetition, credibility, and narratives of power and hope.
- Promote targeted accountability measures. Israeli and Western intelligence services should selectively focus on high-ranking IRGC commanders and regime officials directly involved in documented acts of international terrorism and severe domestic human rights abuses. Such precise actions, referencing existing international law and human rights conventions, would inspire fear among regime hardliners, reduce their operational cohesion, and accelerate internal defections, weakening the regime from within.
Iran’s apparent calm has been shattered. The Israeli strikes have provided a critical opening, demonstrating vulnerability within the regime’s core. A coherent strategy, centered on economic isolation, psychological operations, and information warfare, could turn this momentary weakness into permanent collapse.
The Islamic Republic is not just an internal Iranian problem or a threat to Israel. It is an engine of global instability. Standing with the Iranian people is a strategic imperative. It’s about disabling a hostile power that threatens international security. The Israelis have opened a crack. The world must decide whether to widen it or allow the regime time to seal it shut.
