The Republican Party’s 2024 Platform did not mention Africa. Yet this does not mean that a coherent and potentially transformative American approach towards the “continent of tomorrow” cannot be found in the foreign policy vision articulated by President Trump and in the record of his first term. Here are three general guiding principles:
First, America First does not mean America alone. President Trump in his 2019 address to the UN General Assembly said: “Like my beloved country, each nation represented in this hall has a cherished history, culture, and heritage that is worth defending and celebrating, and which gives us our singular potential and strength… If you want freedom, take pride in your country. If you want democracy, hold on to your sovereignty. And if you want peace, love your nation. Wise leaders always put the good of their own people and their own country first.” I heard then (as the US special envoy to the Sahel) that those words resonated with many Africans, some of whom had made great sacrifices for national liberation and independence. These are proud patriots who want partnerships with America, not lectures on America’s latest social causes.
Second, America’s partners should be capable. America’s preferred partners in Africa (and elsewhere) will be those nation-states that bring something to the table. During the first Trump administration, talks were well advanced for a free-trade agreement with Kenya, a country with considerable economic achievements as a regional hub for technology and innovation (the “Silicon Savannah”). Kenya is also an important partner in America’s diplomatic and security efforts, including in fighting Islamist terrorism spilling out of its failed-state neighbor, Somalia. The Biden administration dropped the free trade agreements with Kenya in favor of a series of talks about non-tariff issues and a showy state visit for Kenya’s President William Ruto.
Third, reciprocity is key to sustainable relations. President Trump expects trade to fair and reciprocal, but reciprocity goes beyond equalized schedules of taxes on imports. It extends to political and security interests. One of the three criteria for eligibility in the African Growth and Opportunity Act trade preference scheme, up for renewal in 2025, is that the would-be beneficiaries do “not engage in activities that undermine United States national security or foreign policy interests.” The Biden administration has overlooked that criterion with South Africa, the biggest beneficiary of these trade preferences (and several other American programs), notwithstanding the country’s closeness to Russia, China and Iran, and its role in leading the “genocide” case against Israel at the International Court of Justice. All three members of the national security team nominated by President Trump – Senator Marco Rubio and Representatives Michael Waltz and Elise Stefanik – are on the record raising concerns about Pretoria’s positioning itself in the orbit of Moscow, Beijing, and Tehran as well as its antisemitic antics.
What might one expect from the incoming administration in terms of US policy towards Africa, within President Trump’s overall agenda?
Trade and Investment. Africa can play a significant role in helping achieve America’s economic priorities. The Energy Act of 2020, signed by President Trump, defined a mineral as “critical” if it was essential to the economic or national security of the US and has a supply chain vulnerable to disruption. The US Geological Survey currently lists more than fifty minerals in this category, ranging from relatively common nickel and zinc to the more esoteric “rare-earth elements” – many sourced to African countries like the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), which produces three-fourths of the world’s cobalt, for example. Investments in integrated corridors like the Lobito Corridor linking Angola, the DRC, and Zambia help African countries not just mine, but also process, add value, and export to global markets. Their natural resources are key to securing supply chains for US defense needs as well as the demand of America’s renewed domestic industries. This—rather than exporting raw materials to China, where supply chains can be weaponized—is how to achieve a “win-win” outcome for both Africans and Americans.
Official aid. For decades, through administrations of both parties, the United States has been by far the most generous donor of bilateral aid to Africa, both humanitarian and development. Sub-Saharan Africa received approximately $7 billion in aid in fiscal year 2024. However, what has not been asked enough is whether those resources have gone where they could do the most good, much less what return American taxpayers have received for the billions of dollars thus committed. In an era of not only constrained budgets, but also great-power competition, enlightened self-interest demands that the stewards of the public purse be both intentional and strategic with these limited resources. The Better Utilization of Investments Leading to Development (BUILD) Act, signed into law by President Trump in 2018, created a new US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) with a mandate to catalyze market-based, private-sector development, spur economic growth in less-developed countries (many in Africa) and advance America’s foreign policy interests. Assessing how well the DFC has carried out that mission in the years since, and what might be done to get a potentially powerful diplomatic and economic tool back on track, ought to be a priority in the new administration.
Commercial Diplomacy. While the US government has a role in ensuring access and a level playing field, it is American entrepreneurs and businesses whose investments will promote development, create jobs, and generate wealth on both sides of the Atlantic. With youthful populations and their growing purchasing power in addition to its abundant natural resources, African countries ought to be prime candidates for the attention of the American private sector. Indeed, while US companies, ranging from tech start-ups to Walmart, have done well with their investments across Africa, more robust and better coordinated commercial diplomacy could increase their ranks significantly, both quantitively and qualitatively. US embassies and their chiefs of mission ought to be strictly accountable for what they do (or fail to do) to promote for American companies and other economic interests.
Security concerns. The civil war in Sudan has forced more people from their homes than any other current conflict in the world, with more than 8 million internally displaced and about 3 million refugees in neighboring countries. Moreover, as the 2024 Global Terrorism Index Report underscored, the epicenter of terrorism has shifted from the Middle East and North Africa to Sub-Saharan Africa, concentrated in the Sahel region, which now accounts for almost half of deaths from terrorism around the world. Tackling these challenges in a way that is consonant with US interests is not at cross purposes with President Trump’s determination to avoid new wars and open-ended commitments to counterinsurgency operations or nation-building exercises. In his first term, President Trump correctly assessed that there was neither a capable local partner in the Mogadishu regime nor any US national interests that warranted risking American lives or treasure on the ground in Somalia. He ordered US military personnel pulled out. Any threats posed by al-Shabaab, the Qaeda-aligned Islamist movement, or the Islamic State’s local affiliate could be dealt with from offshore or bases in nearby countries. The Biden administration reversed this Trump order, which will need to be revisited after the inauguration.
Meanwhile, amidst the global context of increasing competition with revisionist powers like China, Russia, Iran – all three of which have ramped up African entanglements over the last four years – and a host of other malign actors, state and non-state, African regimes nowadays have multiple options to choose from. To respond effectively, the new US administration will need to be nimble and pragmatic: where it makes strategic sense to engage, it must be prepared to offer a better a value proposition than America’s rivals.
Africa is more important than ever to the national interests of the United States and its geopolitical and geoeconomic significance will only increase in the years ahead. President Trump has repeatedly shown a willingness to question and, where necessary, break with conventional wisdom. Working together with willing and capable partners on the African continent, the promise spoken by President Trump at the UN in 2019 can be fulfilled: “When our nations are greater, the future will be brighter, our people will be happier, and our partnerships will be stronger.”
