The Iran War Is Recasting the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa as a Strategic Battleground

From IMEC to China’s Belt and Road, global powers are converging on one of the world’s oldest geopolitical crossroads The war involving Iran is often described as a Middle Eastern crisis. In reality, its consequences extend far beyond the Gulf. As tensions disrupt shipping routes, energy markets and regional alliances, the ripple effects are reshaping […]

Could Ukraine Actually Defeat Russia?

When President Donald Trump said (in 2025) Ukraine could regain its territory, it wasn’t just a comment about borders. It touched a deeper strategic question that many in Washington still hesitate to answer plainly:  What happens if Russia loses? For four years, the United States and its allies have supported Ukraine with roughly $66.9 billion […]

The Iranian Regime in Wartime Transformation: Why Mojtaba Khamene’i is far from Supreme

The strategic impact of decapitation attacks is a controversial question. Advocates point to organizations and nations thrown into disarray by the loss of their leaders: opponents mention what happened after Israel killed Nasrallah’s predecessor as the leader of Hizbullah, only to face for many years a much more formidable opponent. It is still early in […]

When Opposition to War with Iran Turns into Absurdity

It is remarkable to witness the level of ignorance displayed by certain public officials, segments of the media, and various analysts when evaluating the rationale behind the joint American–Israeli military operation against Iran. For Americans, it is natural to perceive Russia and China as primary threats, given how deeply U.S. strategic thinking has been shaped […]

Estonia Has the Cards: Tiny Tech Nation Can Down Iranian Drones 

Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur spoke with the Jerusalem Strategic Tribune’s Melinda Haring on March 19, 2026 from Miami, Florida, where he was attending the Miami Security Forum. Pevkur assumed his position in July 2022. From 2022 to 2025, Estonia’s defense sector has grown seven-fold, and Pevkur expects more growth. Estonia has focused on automatization, […]

Basing U.S. Navy Vessels in the Indian Ocean: A Step Toward Long-Term Engagement

When American policymakers think of the Indo-Pacific region and the challenges it poses for U.S. security interests, it is understandable that the Pacific part comes to mind first. From the constant possibility of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan to North Korea’s menacing nuclear arsenal, threats to stability in the Western Pacific have enormous implications for […]

Turkey’s Strategic Caution on Iran</br>Why Ankara still sees continuity in Tehran as less dangerous than an uncertain transition

When missiles fall near Turkish territory, the expectation is usually clear: Ankara will answer with forceful rhetoric, calibrated signaling, and an emphatic defense of sovereignty. Yet when the source of that threat is Iran, Turkey’s response reveals a deeper strategic paradox. Even as Tehran tests Turkish red lines, Ankara remains reluctant to embrace any scenario […]

There Will Be No Energy Crisis

“Oil will be coming down … it went up a little but less than we thought. It’s going to come down more than anybody understands,” said a confident Donald Trump earlier this month, following news that the 32 members of the International Energy Agency (IEA) have agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil from […]

Israel’s India Opportunity

With all eyes now on the unfolding conflict with Iran, it would be easy to ignore a very different regional development of recent weeks. That, however, would be a mistake. Although it has since been overshadowed by the new Gulf war, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent state visit to Israel – complete with a […]