Post-war Ukraine will offer enormous commercial opportunities and powerful people-to-people connections. American businesses and research institutions will benefit from a rich pool of knowledge and skilled workers. This upside potential awaits a Trump administration seeking a conclusion to the war now entering its third year.
Ukraine’s policymakers will face an immediate postwar economic challenge: finding alternative sources for imports historically provided by Russia. With Putin’s oil and gas no longer a viable option, Ukraine will seek alternative sources at a time when President Trump has promised to bolster liquefied natural gas by supporting the development of new export facilities. Despite its industrial achievements, Ukraine lacks a sizeable domestic automotive industry. The vast bulk of vehicles in Ukraine are imports and, for many years, Russia was its main automotive supplier. In a peacetime Ukraine, the vehicle of choice may be a Ford or a GM.
In 2023, Ukraine’s President Volodymr Zelenskyy appeared virtually at the National Association of Manufacturers annual gathering. He understands the critical roles that US companies could play in reconstruction and is engaging them now as a potential lobbying force in American domestic politics. Promising contracts include John Deere’s autonomous tractors, protecting farmers from the risk of unexploded Russian ordinance, Huntington Ingalls’ naval shipyard reconstruction and Turner Construction’s expansion of Ukraine’s airports,
Ukraine’s tech sector may also be of interest to US companies. Russia’s war has sparked a digital renaissance in Ukraine. Hundreds of thousands of young men, prevented from leaving the country under martial law, have turned their technical savvy to the war effort. Their ranks are buttressed by legions of experienced women coders, project managers, and system engineers filling roles left open by drafted compatriots.
Prior to Russia’s invasion, Ukraine already boasted a promising tech sector. Grammerly and GitLab were founded by Ukrainians in Ukraine. Since the 2022 invasion, the sector has grown despite power cuts and conscription of young men. US traveltech companies like Expedia and Airbnb are signing deals in Kyiv. A post-war tech boom in Ukraine would not be without precedent. In Israel, Unit 8200, the military outfit responsible for cyberwarfare and signals intelligence, has served as an incubator for the country’s start-ups. Forged by years of war, Ukraine’s tech generation presents an attractive talent pool for American investors.
Ukraine has also become a leader in e-government solutions. Two years before the war, the government of Ukraine launched Diia – a one stop shop online for a host of government services. Ukrainians turn to Diia to renew passports, apply for utility subsidies, secure marriage licenses, register businesses, and pay taxes. As Russia continues its nonstop bombardment, Ukrainians are using the app to document damages and file claims. The Diaa app is ripe for export; Ukraine is sharing its e-government experience with peer countries in an effort that can potentially save billions of taxpayer dollars worldwide.
The extent of Ukraine’s rare earth and critical minerals, used in semiconductors, electricity generation, aviation, magnetics, and battery manufacturing, is not proven. But there is broad agreement that they are substantial. Industry experts value Ukraine’s annual natural resource output at $15 billion per year, including the largest untapped supply of recoverable rare earth resources in Europe. China, the largest supplier of rare earth minerals, has taken steps in recent months to restrict American companies’ access to them. Thus bringing Ukrainian resources to the market could help diversify away from China.
The value of a democratic and prosperous Ukraine to the US is greater than the sum of the goods and services it can produce and consume. Americans eager to encounter Slavic civilization but put off by Putin’s mafia state will discover a hospitable and affordable destination in Ukraine, from beautiful Carpathian villages to majestic port cities. A liberated Ukrainian nation would not soon forget that Americans have supported their liberty in very tangible ways. If Ukraine is able to secure a lasting peace with meaningful security guarantees, Prospekt Trumpa in Kyiv may one day join the ranks of Paris’s Franklin Roosevelt Metro Station, Woodrow Wilson Street in Sarajevo, and the Truman Institute for the Advancement of Peace in Jerusalem.
