Essays

The Republican Party’s 2024 Platform did not mention Africa. Yet this does not mean that a coherent and potentially transformative American approach towards the “continent of tomorrow” cannot be found in the foreign policy vision articulated by President Trump and in the record of his first term. Here are three general guiding principles: First, America […]

The US-China relationship faces certain tension and rising competition over the next four years. While it is impossible in general to predict specific new administration policies, there are likely to be wide swings between efforts to engage China and seek compromise, with efforts to compete, confront, or even contain Beijing. President Trump will be surrounded by […]

As the incoming Trump administration turns its gaze outward, it will find a world that is rudderless in many places, often stagnant and bereft, in no small measure owing to the abdication of any meaningful leadership from the United States that began under Barack Obama. In large parts of the world—Latin America, for instance, and […]

BACKGROUND The second Trump administration will face immediate foreign policy dilemmas in all three Eurasian fronts. This paper concentrates on the Middle East, but the competing demands of Europe and East Asia, and the links among all of them, influence decisions everywhere. The dramatic events of the past year open the door to a regional […]

Kicking the can down the road has characterized America’s Ukraine policy for the last two decades. The can is about to stop at the doorstep of incoming President Donald Trump. The assumptions that have guided US policy, crafted under far different geopolitical and geoeconomic circumstances, are simply no longer valid. The new Trump national security […]

Germany is facing unexpected headwinds. As Ukraine struggles to fend off Russia, the Middle East erupts, and China menaces Taiwan, it is struggling to meet a welter of domestic and foreign challenges. The recent collapse of Social Democratic chancellor Olaf Scholz’s three-party coalition has coincided with the election of Donald Trump, creating a sense of […]

The landslide election of Donald Trump’s holds out real promise of encouraging peace in the Middle East. Unlike President Biden, who demanded caution from Israel in exchange for providing arms, Trump seems to be sending a message that he will support Israel’s policy of preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons, even if that requires military […]

Donald Trump’s resounding victory has potentially tectonic implications for allies, friends and the world. People are drawing conclusions by extrapolating from Trump’s actions in his first term. I think it could be a bit different this time. First, despite Trump’s campaign style as performance art, there was more structure and substance to his campaign this time. He […]

Donald Trump’s victory by an unassailable margin has shocked America’s bicoastal liberal intelligentsia. A majority of media pundits, whether talking heads or press columnists, could not imagine that the former and now future president could do anything more than eke out a narrow electoral victory. They simply could not comprehend how Americans other than Trump’s […]

It would be hard to think of a starker contrast than that between the two candidates on foreign policy. One refers to America as a “garbage can for the world.” The other says that “the American dream belongs to all of us.” One is calling for a massive increase in tariffs, while the other dismisses them […]

Two days before the 2024 elections and Americans find themselves in a revel of name-calling. The American media, acting as campaign surrogates, edit and spin the candidates’ remarks to support the epithets.  “Facts are stubborn things,” said our second president John Adams, “and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our […]

Israel’s confrontation with Iran and its proxy armies, including the current operation against Hizbullah by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), should be seen as part of a broader global struggle. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that began in February 2022 was the first sign of a new geostrategic era, and the October 2023 mass murder invasion […]

In late September, an Egyptian naval vessel docked in Mogadishu, the capital of Somalia, to offload a shipment of weaponry including anti-aircraft guns and artillery, many of them outdated and some even World War II-vintage. It was Egypt’s second major delivery. A month before, two Egyptian C-130s landed at Mogadishu’s international airport to deliver a […]

In September 2022, Iranians from all walks of life took to the streets against the ruling clerical regime. The immediate cause was the brutal death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini at the hands of regime security forces for the crime of improperly wearing her Islamic headscarf or hijab.  The grassroots protests quickly transformed into something else: […]

In October 2022, Israel and Lebanon sent separate commitments on a common maritime border to the United States. The deal was structured in this fashion, rather than as a bilateral agreement, to accommodate the government of Lebanon, which refused to sign anything directly with Israel.  The maritime border deal was intended to allow each country […]

Military aggressions and provocations by China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea have created one of the most dangerous security environments in decades. Making matters worse, these powers are supporting each other in their malign actions. How should we refer to this emerging bloc? Russia is waging war to make Ukraine its colony again. Iran has […]

When Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva returned to Brazil’s presidency in 2023, it was clear that he wished to restore the high international profile which Brazil had enjoyed during his first two terms, 2003-2010. International expectations were high given that his predecessor, Jair Bolsonaro, had been largely uninterested in foreign policy. However, Lula has faced […]

This past September I visited the refurbished Wien Museum which covers Austria’s history from the bronze age until the present. Perhaps the most stimulating exhibition was a new one on the top floor that surveys the Nazi era. It’s called “Laboratory of Cruelty.” In its previous incarnation, the museum did not trouble itself to mention […]

Just three weeks ago, thousands of Hizbullah fighters, commanders, and activists were killed or injured in Israeli “pager” attacks. Next the terrorist organization’s top leaders, including Secretary General Hasan Nasrallah, were eliminated in Israeli airstrikes. Then, after Israeli warplanes bombarded Hizbullah’s stronghold in Beirut and bases in southern Lebanon, Israel invaded with two divisions, aiming […]

Four months after October 7, 2023 I met an Egyptian acquaintance, and we tried to make sense of the situation. He offered the thought that “the two-state solution was never as relevant as it is now. Everyone understands that the Palestinian issue is back on the global agenda, and it is understood that there is no […]

The United States is focused on three big global challenges. In the Middle East, it struggles to prevent a full regional war while supporting its ally Israel; in Europe, it supplies Ukraine with arms to blunt the Russians; and in the Western Pacific it strengthens a network of alliances to contain Chinese expansionism. Meanwhile, the […]

“Dad, open your WhatsApp and see the [photos of] dead Jews. Your son has killed Jews.” “God bless you.”  “Dad, I’m calling you from the phone of a Jew! I just killed her and her husband, with my own hands.”   – Intercepted cellphone call, October 7, from Hamas elite unit member One unanswered question is […]

Over the course of 33 years since the fall of the Soviet Union, Azerbaijan has transformed into an independent regional player. Its neighbors in Armenia fear that Azerbaijan’s ambitions will eventually lead to another war. Average Azerbaijanis, meanwhile, wonder when the military achievements will translate into economic prosperity.  Regaining Territory Through War It’s impossible to […]

China is steadily increasing coercive measures against Taiwan, but they remain to date below the threshold of military conflict. What is the point at which China’s coercion transitions to the use-of-military force consistent with war? Essentially, when does coercion end and conflict begin? Making that determination will be critical to United States responses. Enhancing understanding of […]

Israel’s recent military actions in Lebanon and Gaza have fundamentally shifted the balance of power in the Middle East to the detriment of the Iranian-led axis and to the benefit of the American-aligned axis of Israel and Arab states, some of which have, with quiet Saudi approval, gambled on relations with the Jewish state to […]

Since the terrible events of October 7th, some Israelis claim there is no longer any distinction between left and right – Israelis were massacred regardless of political affiliations. At the same time, around the world  there is an increasingly binary view of political identity, which claims that a person can be either a Zionist or […]

Guatemala could become a key partner in the US efforts to manage migration flows from Central and South America. Looking ahead, whoever is elected the next president of the United States, either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump, will look to Guatemala to help manage migration in the countries south of Mexico.  Guatemala has been a […]

Large-scale Israeli military operations against Hamas in Gaza are winding down and the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) is focused on Hizbullah in the north. Now the Israel government and the IDF face the long-postponed question of postwar planning for Gaza. Two options are under discussion: a multinational mission or an Israeli military administration, both as […]

The deep partisan divisions in the United States affect many public issues, including the ongoing wars in Europe and the Middle East. The Israeli war of self-defense in Gaza commands strong support among Republicans but elicits less enthusiasm among Democrats. By contrast, Democrats generally endorse Ukraine’s war of self-defense against Russia, following the lead of […]

Suriname, a small, resource-rich country with a population of 600,000, faces a consequential election in May 2025, when its current president, Chan Santokhi, seeks re-election. Owing to limited polling data, the outcome remains uncertain. But these elections will be pivotal for the country’s economic reform agenda and oil prospects and thus its economic future, as highlighted […]

Beijing has argued for a truce and negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv since the Russian invasion began two and a half years ago. Ukraine’s occupation of parts of Russia’s Kursk region could lend new urgency to the Chinese position.  If the Ukrainian offensive is not quickly and completely repulsed by Moscow, the Ukrainian bargaining positions […]

When a country’s government enacts sanctions against another country, individual firms in the country are left to determine whether to comply or seek sanctions-flouting workarounds to keep goods and services flowing. This is the reality faced by thousands of firms worldwide that buy from and sell to Russia, the world’s twelfth largest economy by nominal […]

This summer country-wide student protests led to an uprising that toppled the government of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Wazed and her secular nationalist Awami League political party. Militant Islamist groups have taken advantage of the turmoil to target minority Hindus (and Christians) in Bangladesh. But apopleptic predictions are uncalled for. A better understanding of the […]

Is the “Alt Reich,” the London Spectator recently asked on its cover, about to make a comeback?  Germany, a model of stability for decades, has been thrown into turmoil by the steady rise of the Alternative Party for Germany, especially in its eastern states. On September 1, the 85th anniversary of Hitler’s invasion of Poland […]

Four decades in the undeclared conflict between Israel and Iran, the storm of war looms even larger over the Middle East, threatening to engulf its citizens in an unprecedented turmoil. If the confrontation between Israel and Iran escalates, the mediator most trusted by both sides may not hail from Beijing, Moscow, or Washington, but from […]

There are two sets of hostages in Gaza and both require American leadership to be free. Less than two weeks after their emotional address at the Democratic National Convention on behalf of their son, the parents of Hersh Goldberg-Polin were told that he was found dead in a tunnel below Rafah.  Hersh was one of […]

Development of the Trans-Caspian corridor would shift trade and energy routes between Europe and Asia to favor Western commercial and strategic interests. Over the past decade, global trade infrastructure has been transformed by China’s economic rise and its strategic investments in trade routes. Central Asia, the “belt buckle” on China’s Belt and Road Initiative, is […]

In July 2015, much of the world exhaled with the announcement that a nuclear deal had been struck among the United States, its partners, and Iran. Although the terms of the deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) were — and remain — contentious, for many, the deal denied Iran the ability […]

Jackson-Vanik was a cornerstone of the US response to the Soviet Union during the Cold War. But it is time for Congress to remove this outdated policy in order to strengthen relationships with Central Asia and present a US commercial alternative to Russia and China.  The Jackson-Vanik Amendment to the Trade Act of 1974 denied US […]

In the tumult that always accompanies a US presidential election – with each side fearing the end of “democracy” or “America” if the other side prevails – some Americans have lost sight of what admirers see clearly from afar: A remarkable, resilient country on which turns the hopes and inspirations of the world. Every US presidential election is billed as “the most consequential […]

On July 12, at the NATO summit in Washington, Turkey threatened to take steps to exclude Israel from all cooperation with NATO. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said that “until comprehensive, sustainable peace is established in Palestine, attempts at cooperation with Israel within NATO will not be approved by Turkey.” This threat should be challenged by […]

Should she beat Donald Trump in this November’s election, Kamala Harris would come into office with more foreign policy experience than most presidents. As vice president, she made 17 foreign trips, giving a high-profile speech at the Munich Security Conference and leading the US delegation to the 2023 climate summit in Dubai. She has met […]

The United States needs to urgently reinstate the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP), the country’s largest and oldest trade preference program.  First implemented in 1976, GSP was designed to facilitate economic growth in developing countries by allowing certain products, such as jewelry, carpets, some agricultural and fishery products, and many types of chemicals and minerals, […]

Israel faces a strategic dilemma regarding prioritization of the multiple arenas of attacks it faces across the region: Can it continue to prioritize Gaza while maintaining the current low tempo of operations in Lebanon and preparing for responses from Iran?  In Gaza, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) has made significant progress since the Hamas invasion […]

The principal product of Washington D.C. is words. They come in three different kinds of packages: memoranda, by which government departments and organizations communicate internally; op-ed articles, by which these various groups communicate with each other and the public; and reports, usually compiled under the auspices of people with expertise in the subject being addressed. […]

On July 18, 1994, a car bomb exploded in front of the Buenos Aires Jewish community center (known as AMIA) leaving 85 persons dead and over 300 wounded. Until the October 7 Hamas attack, this was the largest terrorist killing of Jews since the Holocaust. On the 30th anniversary of this attack, the Tehran Times, […]

How will Kamala Harris conduct foreign policy if she becomes president in January 2025? Would she hew to traditional Democratic Party stands on dealing with authoritarian regimes, climate change and foreign alliances? Or will she veer off in unpredictable directions? One obvious place to try and answer this question might be to explore Harris’ own […]

The Russo-Ukrainian War is a grand battle about both the future of Europe and the principle of inviolability of borders. In addition, the war’s course and outcome can accelerate, contain or reverse broader political, social and ideological trends across the globe. Stabilizing the International Order A Ukrainian victory would lead to a stabilization of the […]

The world is on fire with two major wars in Europe and the Middle East and Iran has a malign involvement in both. As a party to the Beijing-Moscow-Tehran axis it supports Russia in its aggression against Ukraine. Iran has fueled conflict through its proxies, Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, threatening America’s close ally, Israel, […]

The first and the only time I interviewed Ismail Haniyeh, the late head of Hamas’ political bureau, was in January 2006 in Gaza, on the day of the fateful elections for the Palestinian parliament, shortly after exit poll results were published.  Like every other member of Hamas, Haniyeh was overwhelmed by this unexpected victory. Hamas […]

As the war in Gaza drags on, so do efforts to identify a model for postwar governance and security. The experience of Kosovo following NATO’s 1999 expulsion of Serbian forces may offer some lessons. A Brief History Refresher In March 1999, in the wake of a growing Kosovo Liberation Army insurgency, an upturn in Serbian […]

The war in Gaza after nine months shows no sign of concluding in the near term. Hamas and other groups in Gaza continue to hold on, after the IDF estimates it has killed or captured 14,000 Hamas members. In every area the IDF left, such as northern Gaza, Hamas returned, albeit in a diminished form.

On a recent Saturday afternoon walk in Jerusalem’s Old City, usually bustling in summer high season, most shops were shuttered. Only a few intrepid Korean pilgrims were visible, along with small groups of Jews holding prayerbooks headed to the Western Wall.  The war has largely scared off tourists, with knock-on effects for subsidiary businesses like […]

The practice of inviting foreign leaders to address Congress goes back to 1824 with Revolutionary War hero the Marquis de Lafayette. But the person most frequently honored with such an invitation, four times to date, is Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. On July 24, he spoke to a joint session of the House and Senate […]

The Global South has a choice between a freedom-based and an authoritarian development model. External powers led by China and Russia promote the latter in, for example, Sub-Saharan Africa, by far the least developed region of the world. 

The image of former president Donald J. Trump, at the age of seventy-eight, wrestling with the Secret Service to stand upright and pump his fist in the air and shout, “Fight! Fight! Fight!” has resonated throughout the world. Bloodied but undefeated, he resembled a roaring lion to his supporters. Republican pollster Frank Luntz predicts that […]

“Don’t repeat our mistakes—we can do it ourselves.” This line occurred to me as I listened to discussions of “the day after” in Gaza. Plans and ideas need to address the detailed problems of implementation. I do not pose as an expert on Israel or Palestinian affairs. Rather I draw from the painful lived experiences […]

In the midst of the current war in Gaza, the Israel Defense Forces is evaluating its future force needs. Three Israeli insiders have differing views on the desirable future size and composition of the IDF.  More Strategic Planning Moni Chorev, former division commander and general in the reserves, told me the following: The IDF must […]

The United States is a country riven by political and cultural fractures and tensions. And in the present day, the American Constitution is as much a source of vexation as it is of inspiration. Timely, indeed, is a new book by Yuval Levin, a 47-year-old, Israeli-born political scientist who is the director of social, cultural […]

The Vilnius NATO summit of 2023 was stalked by a spectre. How would the allies deal with Ukraine’s NATO aspirations while its vaunted counter-offensive had gotten off to a sputtering start, amidst nuclear saber rattling by Vladimir Putin and his henchmen, eliciting in turn a focus on “escalation management” by Joe Biden’s national security team. […]

On July 8, Russia launched a barrage of missiles that hit the Okhmatdyt Children’s Hospital in Kyiv, killing at least 38 persons. One missile demolished the ward which cared for child patients on dialysis. The explosion was so powerful that the top floor of the building collapsed; the shockwave and secondary shrapnel destroyed two other […]

Paraguay is at a hinge moment in its history, with the election last year of a new president. With small steps, the United States could make a significant difference. This collaboration would both enhance Paraguay’s development and its status as a US ally. The country’s biggest constraint, however, is corruption. and more engagement from the […]

The systemic failure of October 7 has no single root nor one explanation. But the predominance for decades of one type of officer – paratroopers – at the top of Israel’s military hierarchy, lately exemplified by Chiefs of Staff Gantz, Kochavi and Halevi, is certainly part of the sad story. Lack of diversity at the […]

The conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine signal a shift in the nature of warfare. The advent of long wars will affect both military strategy and broader national decision-making. Long wars require not just military readiness but also economic planning, especially civilian and military long-term logistical planning. For Israel, this is a particularly challenging development, as […]

Across Europe, anti-establishment parties are winning stunning upsets, leaving center and center-left parties scrambling to forge alliances to avoid total political irrelevance.  In most of the 27 member countries of the EU, the early June elections for the European Parliament resulted in a large and historic victory for parties hostile to the status quo. In France, the National Rally, led by […]

Freedom and democracy have declined globally over the last two decades. This is bad for US security and prosperity, because autocracies hostile to the United States find more willing supporters among other autocrats. Furthermore, American companies trying to access markets of less-democratic developing nations face opaque regulatory regimes subject to the whims of unaccountable predatory […]

Looking like a figure out of Madame Tussauds wax museum as he gazed vacantly into the distance, the 81-year-old Joe Biden delivered a widely panned performance in the debate on June 27. A confrontation that was supposed to quell doubts about his fitness for the presidency only succeeded in amplifying them.  As Biden resists numerous calls […]

Benjamin Netanyahu was scheduled to address a joint session of the United States Congress on June 13. But that day, while an ordinary day in Israel, was the second day of the Jewish holiday of Shavuot in the United States and the rest of the Diaspora. Jews in the Diaspora traditionally celebrate the beginning and […]

On May 20, the chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court Karim Khan issued a public statement requesting arrest warrants for five individuals. They are Hamas military leaders Yahya Sinwar and Mohammed al-Masri (known as Mohammed Deif or “guest” in Arabic because he frequently changes residences), head of the Hamas political bureau Ismail Haniyeh, and […]

In the current cold war, the US and its allies in the Free World bloc are in a sharp contest with the authoritarian, revisionist, and expansionist bloc of China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. The stakes could not be higher. If the Free World loses this contest, the freedom, security, and prosperity of Americans and its […]

Despite Russia’s attack on Ukraine, Eastern Europeans feel secure today. They have confidence in NATO as an organization led by the United States and thus appreciated in Moscow as strong. At the same time, some politicians and diplomats in Eastern Europe wonder what might happen to their countries if Donald Trump wins the presidential elections […]

When Iran’s President Raisi died in a helicopter crash in May, President Putin expressed condolences and called Raisi a “very reliable partner.” Russian Muslims offered prayers for Raisi at Moscow’s main mosque, and Russian state television provided continuous updates on the funeral arrangements from Iran. Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian, who also perished in […]

The June elections for the European Parliament were more than a setback for Europe’s political establishment. For Germany’s Olaf Scholz and France’s Emmanuel Macron, they were a humiliation. They also contain a warning message for America’s Joe Biden. Across the continent, right-wing populists scored convincing victories. In France, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party won […]

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will address a joint session of Congress on July 24 at what promises to be an historic and controversial moment. Netanyahu’s speech allows him to “share the Israeli government’s vision to defend its democracy, combat terrorism and establish a just and lasting peace in the region,” said House Speaker Mike […]

Recently I called up an Arab friend in the East Jerusalem neighborhood of Kufr ‘Aqab. Having just returned from Israeli military reserve duty, I felt out of the loop and wanted to know what’s happening, especially why East Jerusalem’s Arab population seemed to react to this war differently than it had in previous rounds of […]

During the Middle Ages, Jews were persecuted and expelled, repeatedly at times, from every European country – but the one the world remembers most is the expulsion from Spain in 1492 of what had been the world’s largest Jewish community. This ancient wound was very much in the foreground when on May 28, 2024 Spanish […]

Public support in the West for the war in Ukraine rests upon three frequently repeated assumptions: Russia’s invasion was unexpected and unprovoked.Ukraine is a unified and democratic nation.Ukraine can win the war and regain its lost territory. None of these is true. The United States strongly opposed the Soviet Union placing missiles in Cuba. Washington […]

On September 26, 2021, Israel’s then Prime Minister Naftali Bennet took the podium at the UN General Assembly and laid out a grand vision for the Middle East. It was a modernist, advanced, technological future (as befitted Bennet, a former high-tech entrepreneur) in which Israel would play a major role – focused upon a world […]

The German term Zeitenwende, or historic turning point, entered the American political lexicon three days after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, on February 24, 2022. On that day, Chancellor Olaf Scholz convoked a special session of the Bundestag and employed this term to underscore the need for a dramatic change in Germany’s foreign and national security […]

I admire America and feel nothing but deep respect and gratitude for it. Yes, I’m familiar with the reservations among many in Europe, ranging from Vietnam to Guantanamo, from the death penalty to the right to bear arms, from Afghanistan to the second Iraq war. My feelings for America are stronger. That’s because they are […]

Hamas’s terrorist attack of October 7 and the Israeli, American, and Iranian/Iranian proxy responses have already fundamentally changed the Middle East. The priority now rightly is on ending the fighting, yet history shows that what comes after a war is as important as combat results in securing a lasting peace. To ensure that an attack […]

Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has a rocky relationship with Israel and bilateral relations have currently reached a nadir.  But Erdoğan pursues a transactional foreign policy in general and, if interests re-align, he could once again restore robust relations with Israel.    A long-time supporter of Hamas, Erdoğan bitterly criticized Israel’s 2008 incursion into Gaza that […]

When he was arrested by German federal police in December 2022, the 72-year-old tweed-jacketed Heinrich XIII Prince Reuss may have looked like a harmless old aristocrat. But on May 21, he went on trial in Frankfurt for plotting a coup d’état to topple the German government on what he called “Day X.” In all, three […]

On September 1, 1982, Palestine Liberation Organization Chairman Yasser Arafat stepped off the Greek cruise liner Atlantis, which had ferried him and some of his inner circle from Beirut to a marina just south of Athens, exiled by Israel’s invasion of Lebanon earlier that year. He was warmly welcomed on the dock by Greek Prime […]

One of the most striking characteristics of the war in Gaza is a severe deficit of empathy. Israelis and Palestinians indicate that they have no emotion left for the other side. The stress would be too unbearable. In addition, each side tends to dehumanize the other, deny the other’s suffering and promise vengeance and violence […]

ParisThere are few men who feel the pain of distant upheavals as acutely as Bernard-Henri Lévy, 75, a French philosopher, filmmaker and public intellectual. Born to a wealthy Sephardic family in French Algeria, he cut his teeth as an international activist in his support for the war of secession against Pakistan by the erstwhile East […]

Many observers of the pro-Gaza/Hamas demonstrations at college campuses throughout the U.S. have been taken aback by the rhetoric and behavior of the protestors and their advocates. Masked faces and widespread refusals to self-identify display the protestors’ reluctance to face real consequences for their actions. What is most troubling, however, is the contention that Israeli […]

Two blocs emerged after the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the Iran-backed terror in the Middle East: The Free World and the New Axis of Evil. By supporting each other, the countries of the New Axis of Evil are more dangerous together than they are separately. The Free World countries must design new policies to […]

I am a child of the Cold War. Growing up in Sweden, I was acutely aware of the occupation and suffering of the Baltic peoples. I visited Estonia and Latvia for the first time in 1974. In Riga I met a young Latvian who told me instantly: “We live in an occupied country.” My dream […]

The surprise was total and horrific—Israeli men, women and children brutally killed or taken hostage by Hamas on October 7, 2023. Israel’s vaunted intelligence services failed to provide adequate warning, its military—the Israeli Defense Forces—failed to provide adequate security, and Israeli political leadership remained cocooned in their comfortable assumptions about risks to Israeli security posed by Palestinians in […]

It is springtime in the Mediterranean, as cruise ships busily make their way from port to port in some of the popular tourist destinations like Lisbon, Naples, the Adriatic Coast, and the Greek Isles. The Med looks peaceful to the people in the lounge chairs of those ships. However, such tranquility is only guaranteed by […]

As Samuel Johnson noted “When a man knows he is to be hanged in a fortnight, it concentrates his mind wonderfully.” Iran’s nuclear ambitions should have concentrated our minds some time ago. Tehran’s first ever direct attack on Israel makes that imperative even more obvious. Clearly, the United States should rethink its approach to the ayatollahs […]

Iran may be about to lose its ally Hamas, which Israel seeks to defeat. But is it also about to gain a new partner, Sudan, on the western side of the Red Sea?  Here we go again in Sudan. For decades the country experienced civil war and famine, triggered by religious conflicts and struggles for power […]

Israel’s version of the Pentagon is a twin-towered office complex in HaKirya, the Compound, bordering what used to be the eastern outskirts of Tel Aviv, until 1948 when the city started expanding and flourishing. On the 14th floor of the complex is a corridor connecting the office suites of the two highest ranking officials. These […]

Several left-leaning Latin American governments have criticized Israel for its response to the October 7 attack, including Mexico, Colombia, and Brazi. But Chile’s young president, Gabriel Boric, stands out for consistent harshness, which extends to his view of Chile’s Jewish community. Ethnic Politics in Chile Chile hosts Latin America’s largest Palestinian community, an estimated 400,000 […]

On February 1, 1979 when Ayatollah Khomeini debarked at Mehrabad airport in Tehran, he was asked what form of government he envisioned for post-Shah Iran. He said, “an Islamic Republic, not one word more or one word less.” Today, as Iran draws closer to the eventual passing of Khomeini’s successor, it is worth focusing on […]

In one of his last interviews on German television, before passing at the age of 100, Henry Kissinger opined that the slaughter of Israelis by Hamas on October 7 could end up bringing the rest of the Arab world into the fighting. Based on recent events, his remarks were prophetic. Unless cooler heads prevail, we […]

In the face of the dramatic large-scale Iranian assault on Israel April 14, Israel has a fateful choice, usually presented as whether or not to conduct a retaliatory attack on Iran. But the real choice is how Israel, as a state with its existence at stake, can exploit the current military and diplomatic situation to […]

The Iranian missile and drone attack on Israel in the early morning hours of April 14 serves as a reminder of Tehran’s dangerous role in Middle Eastern affairs. Imagine the impunity with which Iran might act if it felt emboldened by possession of a nuclear umbrella or an ability to retaliate with nuclear weapons. The […]

Iran’s attack on Israel, with more than 170 drones and 120 ballistic missiles, was the largest that Tehran has ever launched against the Hebrew state.  Previously, Iran used proxy forces, including Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Houthi rebels in Yemen, to rain down rockets on Israeli homes and ships. Now, Iran is attacking directly and striking at well […]

The war launched by Hamas on October 7, 2023 caught Israel and its defense establishment by surprise, but the same cannot be said of the missile attacks on Red Sea shipping by the Houthi rebel regime in Yemen.  Ever since the Houthis took control of Yemen’s capital San’a in 2014, Israeli analysts have warned that […]

The past two years have witnessed several failures of deterrence – Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and Hamas’ attack on Israel in October 2023. The invasion of Ukraine heightened global awareness that military force by a state actor is not a relic of the past and could occur in other flashpoints around the […]

Israel must finish the job of crushing Hamas in Gaza both as a military force and as a government. That’s the legitimate response to the surprise attack of October 7. This war aim also includes return of the hostages and minimizing Gazan civilian casualties to the extent possible. The Israel Defense Forces are in the […]

On March 22, Islamic militants opened fire on a concert hall in the Russian capital of Moscow, killing scores of concertgoers before setting the venue ablaze. Less than 24 hours later, the Islamic State terrorist group publicly took responsibility for the assault. The death toll currently stands at 137. While some reports link the attack to […]

The March 22 terrorist attack in Moscow left 133 dead, more than 130 injured, and many urgent questions about the return of ISIS, a Syria-based terror group long thought to be vanquished.  Days before the bloodshed, the US secretly warned the Kremlin about a potential ISIS attack, giving actionable intelligence under its longstanding “duty to warn” […]

The final major combat phase of the Gaza war, an Israeli attack on remaining organized Hamas forces in Rafah, is approaching. It was delayed due to the humanitarian crisis impacting the Gaza population and negotiations over a limited pause in fighting for release of Israeli hostages. But the “how” of the Israeli operation has produced […]

Rarely in the American special relationship with Israel has there been such a dramatic display of discord between leaders. What began as a remarkable show of American support and solidarity with Israel, in the wake of Hamas’s assault in October, came by February and March to be increasingly marred by acrimony. The White House statement […]

The American general Maxwell Taylor wrote a book published in 1960 under the title “The Uncertain Trumpet” about American defense complacency in the Cold War. It triggered a change in strategy. The trumpets of Jericho brought down walls. Today, a trumpet is needed to break through Europe’s walls of inertia and a comfortable “business as […]

“No one starts a war–or rather, no one in his senses ought to do so–without first being clear in his mind what he intends to achieve by that war and how he intends to conduct it.” While The famous Prussian military theorist Carl Von Clausewitz penned that strategic wisdom in the 19th century, those words […]

The world is in the initial stages of an evolution in the structure of global trade. While popular narratives about the era of globalization described a wide dispersion of trade flows and supply chains to all corners of the world, the reality was different. Global trade remained very concentrated. For example, close to 40 percent […]

Nayib Bukele has been reelected president of El Salvador. The Salvadoran constitution prohibits consecutive terms as president but Salvadorans looked past the legal prohibitions to elect their young, charismatic, and popular president to a second five-year term. Bukele’s new term in power has implications for El Salvador’s postwar democracy and other populist leaders in the […]

One of the conclusions from the Israel-Hamas war is the need for renewed, concerted action to address hostage taking. There are concrete diplomatic and law enforcement actions that the international community should take to delegitimize this practice and raise the cost to hostage takers, governments that also employ this tactic, and governments that provide safe […]

Four months into the war in Gaza and the cafés in Tel Aviv are full. It’s nearly impossible to find a spot in trendy restaurants on weekends. Yet no one should be mistaken. Israel is not back to normal.  A radio or television plays in the background of nearly every café and shop, and when […]

When the International Court of Justice in the Hague decided on January 26 not to issue an injunction to stop Israel’s war in Gaza, Israel’s media saw a temporary legal victory. However, the court did not dismiss South Africa’s claim of genocide. Rather it required Israel to report within 30 days on its compliance with […]

Poland’s democratic transition is proving to be turbulent and challenging.  The liberal center-right government led by Donald Tusk took office on December 13, 2023, after eight years of rule by “Law and Justice,” a nationalist right-wing party. The new government’s reform efforts face the kind of domestic opposition that may pose the biggest threat to […]

In January 2018, I traveled via armored convoy over 20 kilometers of bad roads from a regional airport to the Hirshabelle provincial state capital of Jowar in central Somalia. Protected by Burundian soldiers of the African Union peacekeeping force, we sped through countryside and villages controlled by the al-Shabaab terror group. In Jowar, the UN […]

Twice in the last fifty years, Israel sustained surprise attacks on a major scale. In the first instance, in October 1973, the IDF failed in fulfilling its mission of defending Israel’s frontiers, but partially compensated for this failure later in the war. Fifty years later, in October 2023, the IDF failed in an irreversible way […]

One lesson of the Russo-Ukraine War is the growing role played by private corporations, both through participation in or circumvention of economic sanctions and business decision-making that directly affects the course of the fighting. 

Cyberspace has become a major domain for organized crime as well as for statecraft in the twenty-first century. Israel has become a top global cyber power. But cyber offense is no silver bullet.  What Is a Cyber-Attack?  A senior JPMorgan executive made headlines at the recent Davos gathering: “people are trying to hack into JPMorgan […]

With support from Europe, the United States, and others, Ukraine has held off – and in part, beaten back – Russia’s campaign of conquest and subjugation. But Ukraine has not won, Putin seems determined to fight on, and the West seems beset by doubts as to whether continuing to back Ukraine is practical or worth […]

Self-deterrence is a defense concept that a state may be restrained from using its military power not by the fear of a counter strike but rather owing to reputational concerns arising from moral, legal or other considerations. This concept may partly explain US reluctance to escalate the current level of military conflict with Iran, though […]

When the war broke out in Gaza, observers made a number of comparisons to the challenges faced by the US-backed anti-ISIS coalition in the battle of Mosul. I was in northern Iraq when it began in October 2016, and I covered the battles leading up to the liberation of the old city of Mosul in March and April 2017. […]

Once upon a time, violent turmoil in the Middle East would spike oil prices, sending the global energy markets and the economies of industrial countries into disarray. This was the case of the 1973 Arab-Israel war, when Middle East oil producers deployed an oil embargo, shifted the balance of market power from buyers to sellers […]

As the war approaches the end of its second year, unless some dramatic development occurs to shift current trends – for instance, a collapse of NATO support for Ukraine or the death of Putin – it seems that the war is a long way from being decided or brought to an end. Initial lessons on […]

On December 28, five Palestinian factions announced an agreement to form a unity government. The five included two Islamist organizations (Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad) and three small Marxist pan-Arab member groups of the PLO (led by the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine). All five are committed to military resistance against Israel. This announcement, […]

As 2024 began, the Israeli war effort in the Gaza Strip changed in nature (see Israel Shifts Tactics in Gaza), with the focus shifting to the battles in the central and southern areas and to special forces operations against Hamas’ immense tunnel system. But the hostage situation remained unresolved, with 136 still held according to […]

Some two billion people, or around one half of the world’s population, will have the opportunity to vote in 2024. No matter the outcome of these elections, 2024 will be a turning point – a time of choosing between democracy and darker outcomes. These elections are taking place against a backdrop of weakening independent institutions in a […]

Did you know that Saddam Hussein won the First Gulf War of 1991? That is the version I heard in Iraq in 2003, after noticing the same Arabic inscription decorating chandeliers in Saddam’s palaces all over the country. ‘How sweet is victory with God’s aid,’ the inscription proclaimed. “What victory was Saddam referring to?” I […]

The Israeli military can prevent more attacks like the one on October 7, but achieving genuine peace depends on the Palestinians. Two major questions loom over the ongoing Israeli military operation in the Gaza Strip: can the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) achieve their military goals there? And can postwar political arrangements that will make future […]

The United Nations Climate Change Conference or COP28 held in Dubai in December was going to be the largest summit in history, with over one hundred thousand participants expected. But that is not how it transpired. The turnout was significant, yet regional events negatively influenced attendance. About eighty-five thousand participants and leaders arrived according to […]

Ksenia Svetlova laid out, in exquisite detail in this journal, the challenges Israel faces and many of its failures in the realm of information warfare. Unfortunately, the situation is worse than she portrays. In my view, many shortcomings are not just failures of policy execution or of imagination, as Svetlova describes, but rather the deliberate […]

Three months into the war in Gaza ,with the defeat of most of the Hamas battalions in northern Gaza, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) is preparing for a new phase of fighting. The new phase will focus on removing terrorist infrastructure in northern and central Gaza. It will include continued battles in and around Khan […]

The Hamas onslaught upon Israel on October 7 and the resulting military response by Israel prompted a wide range of responses across Southeast Asia. Some are motivated by political and religious ideology, particularly in Muslim-majority nations, and others by pragmatism, self-interest and established relationships.  Indonesia In Indonesia, numerous leaders expressed support and admiration for the Hamas terror […]

A few days before the Dutch general election of November 22, 2023, the polls indicated a close finish. Each of three parties vying for the top position was expected to get just below 20 percent: Labor (in a common list with the Greens); the center-right Liberals; and the far-right Freedom Party. The winner would have […]

The grand opening ceremony of Egypt’s new National Museum, reportedly the world’s largest museum space, was postponed. President Abd Al-Fattah al-Sisi had hoped to invite world leaders to gather in Giza outside Cairo, with the Pyramids as the backdrop, and give a boost to both tourism and himself as he begins a third term in […]

Recent events in the transit lanes of the Red Sea have underscored the need for international action to restore freedom of navigation for commercial shipping traffic. Attacks on commercial ships by the Iranian proxy Houthi regime in Yemen have become a daily occurrence, not seen since Iran’s attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf from […]

President Joe Biden’s poll numbers are in freefall. A December 14 Pew poll found that only one-third of respondents approve of his job performance, the lowest such result since he took office. Moreover, his approval ratings even among Democrats plunged twelve percentage points since October 2022.  >> Window on Washington: Read more from Dov S. Zakheim […]

I spoke recently with a friend, Sergeant Major Amichai, who was home for a short break after nearly two months of reserve duty in the Israeli army. Amichai owns a small tour-guiding business in Jerusalem, renting Segways and other vehicles, called SmartTours. It relies heavily on domestic and international tourism. Shortly after Hamas attacked southern Israel […]

Promising libertarian economic shock therapy and a new foreign policy, President Javier Milei is taking Argentina’s political scene by storm.  A Mandate for Change With an eleven-percentage point electoral victory on November 19, President Milei claims a mandate for radical change. His inauguration speech on December 10 broke with a tradition of addressing the legislature. […]

What can be said about the impact of current developments in the Middle East on East Asia?  The most compelling current development is obviously the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, which has dominated the headlines for two months and will do so for many more months to come.  War arouses strong emotions. […]

The scope of the massacres committed by Hamas terrorists and Gazan civilians in southern Israel on October 7 deeply shocked Israeli society. In the aftermath of October 7 Israel was shocked a second time – by multiple denials of the massacre, the indifference to Israeli women who were raped and Israeli children who were kidnapped, […]

Israel used the pause in fighting from November 24 to December 1 to prepare for a new round of operations in Gaza. This became clear as Israeli units began on December 3 to assault Khan Yunis, the major city in southern Gaza.  >> Reports from the Gaza Front: Read more from Seth J. Frantzman On […]

Dear Nadav, We first met when you were President Shimon Peres’s foreign policy advisor and I have long admired you as one of Israel’s most skilled diplomats. J Street also recognized this in appointing you to be its Executive Director in Israel. I believe you are a particularly good role model at this time – a […]

There is nothing rational, let alone normative, about a situation where a terror group and its affiliates took 240 people hostage – toddlers and elderly people, children and women, young revelers abused and then abducted from a desert rave, as well as soldiers (both women and men) surprised in their bases. The numbers keep changing […]

The best defense is a good offense. Or is it, really? October 7, 2023, the costliest day in Israel’s history, provides a stark lesson. Sometimes going on the offensive is better, and a surer way to victory, than waiting for the enemy to land the first blow. But not always, and as a state of […]

As they were marching towards Jerusalem, the knights of the First Crusade lay siege to the city of Antioch in southern Anatolia from October 1097 to June 1098. They were approached there by envoys of the Fatimid dynasty ruling Egypt, who offered the Crusaders a plan to cooperate against the Seljuk state then in possession […]

>> Read part I: The Advent of Anti-Israel Sentiment on Campus In Part I, I described the rise of anti-Israel activism on college campuses, which paralleled the political discourse in American society. Here I delve into the roles of Middle Eastern Studies and Israel Studies.  For half a century, one-sided Arab views of Middle Eastern Studies […]

Kol Yisrael Arevim Zeh Bazeh.[ “All Israel is bound one to the other,” Jewish legal principle of the Talmud.] Introduction What hit Israelis with such ferocity and sudden force in the villages and kibbutzim on the Gaza border on October 7 was unprecedented, a disastrous tsunami of indiscriminate violence in which Hamas took 1300 lives and […]

By now it’s clear to anyone paying attention that many American college campuses have since October 7 become hotbeds of anti-Zionism and antisemitic fervor. One Jewish professor at a small liberal arts college in the Pacific Northwest, an institution you’re not hearing about in the news, recently told me that “From the River to the […]

Hamas’ sudden attack on the kibbutzim and the towns neighboring the Gaza Strip caught the IDF and the country by total surprise. During the first 24 hours, beginning at 6:30 in the morning of October 7, the Hamas Nukhba (name of the commando troops, means “elite”) and those who came in with them conquered and […]

In the weeks since the Hamas massacre on October 7, pundits have debated whether or not Iran helped Hamas develop the plan for the terrorist assault and if Iran had foreknowledge of the attack. Citing a Hamas source, the Wall Street Journal reported that Iran helped plot the attack and that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard […]

In the immediate aftermath of Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7th and during Israel’s counter-offensive into Gaza, Iranian proxy militias in Iraq and Syria have escalated attacks on US positions in both countries. Fully 60 such attacks have taken place against US forces since October 7. 56 American personnel have suffered injuries in these attacks […]

On Saturday, November 18, Israel’s war in Gaza reached its 43rd day and the ground offensive in Gaza has now reached its three-week mark. This war, Israel’s leaders say, is going to be long. But we are beginning to see the ground offensive reach a new phase. >> Reports from the Gaza Front: Read more from Seth […]

The profound strategic implications of the American support for Israel in the war against Hamas – including a significant US military deployment to the region (two Carrier Strike Forces and an Ohio-class nuclear submarine, as well as air assets), albeit for the purpose of deterrence rather than participation in the fighting – will fully manifest […]

“The United States as a nation has been severely kidnapped by political and other forces derived from Jewish capital,” thus said Dong Manyuan, the former Vice president of CIIS, the Chinese foreign ministry’s think tank, in a TV interview on November 1, in response to the interviewer claim that Jews “manipulate and control” 70% of […]

“We will tell the whole world that Israel is a war criminal. We are preparing for this. We will declare Israel a war criminal,” said Turkish President Recep Tayip Erdoğan during the “Great Palestinian Rally” that took place in Istanbul on October 28, exactly three weeks after Hamas murdered over 1400 Israeli and other citizens, […]

As these lines are being written, the war is ongoing and may yet intensify. It is perhaps too early to posit conclusive lessons at this stage. Therefore, I would qualify all of the findings below by suggesting that they must be put to the test of systematic criticism – alongside many of our military and […]

In the days and weeks after the October 7 terrorist attack and Israeli military response, some Latin American nations have distanced themselves politically from Israel. While views of the conflict are evolving, the Latin American public’s reliance on social media for news reports, amid relentlessly negative images of suffering in Gaza, has contributed to widespread […]

The week of fighting on the ground that began on Saturday, October 27 was tough. There were Israeli military casualties and Gazan civilian casualties. The worst incident for Israel came when a Namer armored personnel carrier was hit with a missile and eleven soldiers were killed. A well-known tank commander, Salman Habaka, who had played a key role […]

Usually, history’s turning points are invisible to the living.  Forks in the road are spotted by historians only long after events and their immediate repercussions have faded. But sometimes history visibly shifts for its participants onto a new course. We are now living through one of those turning points in history.  2023 was the year that […]

The article by Stephen Blank of October 25, “Russia’s Role in the Gaza War,” provides much good evidence of Russia’s initial efforts to capitalize on the war for its own purposes. But that article may have overestimated the extent of Russian involvement in and influence over Hamas, Hizbullah and indeed over Iran. The Kremlin aspires […]

On the night of January 25, 2006, after Hamas won a majority of the seats in elections for the Palestinian Legislative Council, its political leader Ismail Haniya told the press he had requested a meeting with Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas to discuss the future of the Palestinian government. “Hamas will cooperate with everybody for […]

In Europe, we have fancied ourselves to be living in a postmodern world. But after the totalitarian assault by Russia against Ukraine and this month’s terrorist attack by Hamas against Israeli civilians, this dispassion is a luxury we can no longer afford.

Public Opinion Swings Against IsraelHugh Pope In a recent broadcast, the presenters of The Rest is Politics – a bipartisan British podcast listened to by five million people a month – demonstrated a trend in Europe away from unconditional support for Israel to more sympathy for the Palestinians. Hosts Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart noted […]

Postwar planning for Gaza needs to start now. Prior to October 7, nobody in Israel was planning for this war. Thus, planning now for what happens if Hamas is defeated may be way behind. It will take many weeks to marshal the necessary resources, equipment, people, and authorizations to meet the basic requirements of Gaza’s […]

The atrocities committed by Hamas against Israeli civilians on October 7 do not exempt Israel from abiding by its own commitments under international law. Even in a war against a brutal terrorist organization engaged in acts of absolute evil, international humanitarian law still applies. Most of these legal obligations are designed to protect the civilian […]

Iran seeks to derail the US regional effort based on Saudi-Israeli normalization

The longer Israel holds off entering the Gaza Strip, the greater will be the number of voices around the world calling upon Israel not to enter at all. The arguments against an incursion are depressingly familiar. There will be those who will counsel against anger and revenge and for “proportionality.” And there will be those […]

Several media outlets have speculated about Moscow’s involvement in Hamas’ most recent aggression against Israel. Certainly, this war may have the effect, whether intended or not, of benefitting Moscow by diverting Western attention and support from Ukraine. But there is some evidence, presented below, of Moscow’s intention to exploit and benefit from the war so as to […]

The second week of the war between Hamas and Israel began on October 15 with expectations for a ground incursion into Gaza, and ended on October 22 with Israeli forces on the border of Gaza and the border of Lebanon continuing to wait and see.  >> Reports from the Gaza Front: Read more from Seth […]

The danger of today’s conflict in Gaza becoming a two-front war for Israel depends on a range of issues, most importantly Lebanese Hizbullah’s leadership and  capabilities, the strategic aims of Hizbullah’s patron, Iran, and the actions of Israel and the United States to effectively deter escalation. Hizbullah as an organization plays three different roles at […]

If there is a winner emerging from the October 7 terrorist attack and subsequent war in Gaza, it is Vladimir Putin. On October 8, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia is interested in starting a war in the Middle East to “undermine world unity.” Russia may not need to start a full-blown war, but Zelensky understands that the current escalation in […]

While onboard USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71) in 1993, President Bill Clinton opined that when word of a crisis breaks out in Washington, it is no accident that the first question many people ask is: ”Where’s the nearest carrier?” President Bill Clinton aboard USS Theodore Roosevelt, March 12, 1993 Once again American history repeats itself. In the immediate aftermath […]

“The real victory comes not from defeating our enemy but from achieving a better place for Israel and our Palestinian neighbors.”  Yair Lapid, Knesset Speech, October 16, 2023 The ground campaign in Gaza has yet to start as I write on October 16. Much of the world’s focus is rightly on supporting Israel’s stated objectives: […]

Israel has correctly assessed the October 7 attack as an existential threat to the state. To be sure, Hamas could never overrun Israel. But if Hamas remains capable of such attacks, possibly coordinated next time with the greater military threats of Lebanese Hezbollah, Syria, and Iran, Israel could be pushed to the brink (as nearly […]

In the aftermath of the Hamas attack on October 7, Israeli government and military chiefs have repeatedly promised the Israeli public that soon HAMAS will not rule over Gaza, politically or militarily. Hamas has been in power in Gaza for 16 years. Let’s review Israel’s recent history with Hamas, to show how inaction and postponing decision-making […]

I spent the first days of the war on the Gaza border, mostly near Kibbutz Zikim. On the fifth day, October 11, I went to the Gaza border city of Sderot and spent time in the community, speaking with locals and also with the police. From these conversations and also discussions with members of the […]

Life in Jerusalem, as I imagine elsewhere, consists these days of gluing ourselves to the hourly news, updating friends and family and listening to them. One theme I get a lot directs anger at Prime Minister Netanyahu and the Israeli government for responsibility for the mass murders that took place on Saturday. I would like […]

It was late in the day on Tuesday May 7, 1940, when Leo Amery, a middle-aged former minister and Conservative Party backbencher, rose in his seat to address the House of Common in the aftermath of Britain’s disastrous Norway campaign. His party leader, Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain, had offered a weak defense of the Norway […]

Israelis woke up on 7 October 2023 to a day of grief, outrage, and ultimately, incomprehension.  It was not the missiles which mattered. Israelis have grown accustomed to missile attacks from Gaza. The horrors which gradually unfolded resulted from an overland breach of the Gaza border defenses. At various points in time on October 7, 14 […]

The 1973 Yom Kippur War began as a surprise attack on the holiest day of the Jewish calendar. On October 7, 2023, history has repeated itself. Earlier today, Hamas, an Iran-backed terror group, launched a surprise attack by land, water, and air – including glider assaults and more than 5,000 rocket strikes in the first […]

My relationship with Jordan began even before the peace treaty was signed. It started in Washington DC where I was posted in the late 1980s as the spokesperson of the Israeli Embassy. This was shortly before the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in 1990, and shortly after King Hussein of Jordan had decided to disengage from […]

The US withdrawal from Afghanistan and ensuing Taliban’s conquest have unleashed humanitarian, security, and geopolitical upheavals in the region.

On August 20, a majority of the previously quiescent Druze minority in Syria moved to open revolt. Chanting slogans to topple the government, demolishing statues of Bashar al-Assad and tearing down his billboard portraits, thousands of protestors spread from the main square of the provincial capital of Sweida to most Druze townlets and villages. On […]

When Prime Minister Netanyahu convened a cabinet meeting on September 12, one week before heading to New York to address the UN General Assembly and meet President Biden and other world leaders, a contentious issue emerged: Should the families of Palestinian security prisoners (those convicted on terrorism charges) be allowed to visit once a month, […]

In the summer of 2013, Major-General Abdel Fatah el Sisi overthrew the Egyptian government and promised the people a renaissance. Instead, Egypt is decaying. The country has always been poor, but Egypt is now in the worst economic shape in a generation. Poverty and income inequality remain stubbornly high as Egyptians grapple with record inflation […]

The Yom Kippur War of 50 years ago remains a watershed event in the Middle East. It marked the end of an era, which Uri Misgav recently called the 25-year Arab-Israeli war (1948-73), and opened an era in which Israel, in a slow and long process, is being accepted by her Arab neighbors. That process […]

Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is in New York this week for the UN General Assembly and side meetings with world leaders. Before going, he voiced his frustration with the Biden administration’s decision to directly link the sale to Turkey of upgraded F-16 fighters (which require congressional approval) to Ankara’s ability to ratify Sweden’s accession […]

Formerly peaceful Ecuador has been rocked by violence during its current presidential elections. In August, Fernando Villavicencio, a presidential candidate and vocal critic of corruption, was assassinated as he left a campaign rally in the country’s capital, Quito. Several local politicians have also been murdered during the campaign period.  The first round of August 20 resulted […]

The outcome of Russia’s war on Ukraine and the provisions of a final settlement are as yet unknown. Ukraine may prevail in pushing Russia back to the 1991 borders, as President Zelenskyy intends. The conflict might result in a settlement with a divided Ukraine, both countries exhausted from the effort. It could grind on for years […]

A central element of the new film Oppenheimer is time. The time needed to design and construct the ultimate weapon is marked through the steady accumulation of marbles in a fishbowl and a wine glass, which represent the growing stockpiles of uranium and plutonium that ultimately fueled the devices dropped seventy-eight years ago on Hiroshima […]

On September 12, Israel’s Supreme Court will convene in an atmosphere of heightened political tension to listen to petitions asking it to strike down a recently-passed Knesset law. No decision from the Court is expected imminently as Israel enters a month of High Holy Days. But political compromise proposals by the Prime Minister and others […]

Since 2020, six African countries have experienced a total of eight coups d’état. With the exception of Gabon, all occurred in the Sahel, the semi-arid band stretching across the continent between the Sahara Desert to the north and the tropical savannah to the south. The conventional narrative of “Africa Rising,” which had only recently replaced […]

Africa struggles to climb American policymakers’ priority list, but it has no such problem with China.  For three decades, the Chinese government has expended immense energy courting African countries. With only two exceptions over the last thirty years, the Chinese foreign minister has made Africa his first overseas destination every year. Other senior Chinese officials […]

Protests in Israel are nothing new, but those on the Golan Heights this June were different.  The government, as part of its clean energy program, had designated the Golan Heights for wind turbine projects. When construction began in June, the Druze on the Golan erupted in mass protests, attracting support from their coreligionists in the […]

The second round of presidential elections in Guatemala on August 20 produced a surprising victor: center-left opposition politician Bernardo Arévalo, who had polled just 11 percent in the first round in June. Guatemalans have voted for change, but with a four-month presidential transition ahead, the election results will not be really final until inauguration day on […]

With the approach of the 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur War of October 1973, it’s time to revisit one of its ongoing scandals in Israel, the claim that the government’s surprise at the start of the war was caused by a set of assumptions, based on intelligence assessments, called in Hebrew the “konzepzia.” >> Inside […]

Worries over the Reservists’ Protest and Its Implications.

On the two-year anniversary of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, JST asked five experts who worked in and on Afghanistan for their comments.

Congress has never had an easy time passing defense budgets. Despite partisan bickering, however, the Congress has successfully passed 62 consecutive defense authorization acts, including for the current year.     The upcoming year’s budget appears to be a troubling exception. Sadly, the best-case scenario is for a defense budget that will be reduced for a time […]

A defense treaty with the US sounds attractive to many in Israel. In 1986-1987, I chaired discussions on the issue in the foreign affairs and defense committee of the Knesset, and we produced a document with pros and cons. The idea came up again in the Sharon government of 2004-2005, and we concluded then that […]

The war in Ukraine was supposed to be over in just a few days, according to US intelligence sources. One and a half years later, both sides are preparing to continue fighting in the months to come. The war is taking an incredible toll on Ukraine. Its men and women are fighting instead of working […]

A bilateral US-Israel “security deal” or defense treaty is back on the agenda of an Israeli government, according to the press. The Jerusalem Strategic Tribune asked three former senior Israeli officials for their views.  Hunting a Dangerous TrophyYair Golan Let us assume that Israel does put on the table a request for a formal defense […]

The difficulty in comparing America’s and China’s influence in the Middle East is that the two operate on entirely different planes. [Note: The Chinese use the term Western Asia, rather than the Middle East, to refer to a region that includes the Levant, Iraq, the Gulf, Turkey and Iran.] Despite China’s impressive naval construction program, China […]

In the two years since they took over Afghanistan, the Taliban have ignited several diplomatic crises and security threats across the country’s borders. Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan have warned that the Taliban are hosting terror groups, and UN and other sources have noted increasing drug trade, border tensions and refugee flows.   Central Asian states, particularly […]

Japanese Prime Minister Kishida, Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol and Indian Prime Minister Modi each made a trip recently to Arab countries of the Gulf. In July, Kishida visited Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Qatar while Modi was in the UAE. Yoon visited the UAE in January. These three trips received far […]

Three months after I came to live in Jerusalem, in November 1977, I joined my fellow Israelis standing on the side of the road to welcome President Anwar Sadat of Egypt. I had decided to immigrate to Israel from Britain in the aftermath of the Yom Kippur War of 1973. Four years later, watching the […]

Generals, the old adage goes, are prone to fighting the last war.  Political leaders and the people they represent typically prefer to avoid armed conflict. They have heeded what they have believed to be the lessons of the most recent conflict in which they have been engaged, seeking, in effect, to avoid the last war. […]

On June 27, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu told a visiting American congressional group that he plans to visit Beijing later this year, adding that the US administration had been informed of this intention. No date has been set nor has the Chinese government confirmed an invitation to Netanyahu.  >>  Insight from Israel: Read more from Eran […]

When President Joe Biden entered office he was quick to declare that “America is back.”  After his predecessor routinely expressed low regard for America’s European allies, Biden declared that the United States was resuming its place at the “head of the table” and was ready to “lead the world.” Nowhere is that leadership more on […]

Introduction: Recurring Pakistani And Growing Chinese Challenges   India faces disputed boundaries and territorial claims with both Pakistan and China. Though the direct threat from Pakistan has become less salient, the boundary dispute with China remains a massive problem. Furthermore at a time when the US and China are locked in a global competition, China’s assertiveness […]

Facing pivotal elections in 2024, Venezuela remains in crisis through a combination of socio-economic upheaval and dysfunctional rule that make it the largest problem in the Western Hemisphere.  A Background of Authoritarian Rule and Governmental Dysfunction      In 2018, Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro rigged a presidential election process, moving up the date for the vote from […]

Ehud Yaari’s “How Israel Lost the Syrian War” in The Jerusalem Strategic Tribune provides unequaled insight into Israel’s and other states’ actions during the  Syrian civil war. He describes Israel’s tactical successes, noting that IRGC Leader Suleimani’s “original plan [to set up a major new rocket and missile front aimed at Israel] for now is […]

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, in February 2021, boldly summarized President Joe Biden’s strategy as a “foreign policy for the middle class,” a concept further articulated in a speech in April 2023. This is both a departure and a continuation of traditional US strategic thinking. In earlier administrations, foreign policy emerged from the concerns of […]

A high school teacher has a rebellious student in his civics class and asks her to write an essay about some issue that concerns her. She writes about the harassment that she and some other Jewish girls face at the neighborhood public swimming pool by youth from a nearby Israeli Arab village, concluding that they […]

Since 2013  – and more intensely since 2017 – Israel has been conducting an active military and intelligence campaign against Iran’s presence in Syria, in addition to the ongoing operations against Iran’s nuclear effort. Doubts have been raised as to the long-term ability of this strategy to prevent Iran from sustaining and extending its grip […]

I once asked a Vietnamese friend what an impending leadership change in Hanoi meant for his country’s relations with China. “Every Vietnamese leader,” he replied, “must get along with China; every Vietnamese leader must stand up to China; and if you cannot do both at the same time, you don’t deserve to be the leader.” […]

Apart from the Syrian people themselves, Israel comes out of the 12 years of civil war in Syria as the biggest loser. The survival of the Assad regime, closely allied with Iran, amounts to nothing short of an Israeli strategic failure.  Assad’s survival turns Iran into Israel’s next-door neighbor, exercising growing influence on the rebuilding of Syria’s armed forces. It allows for land corridors through Iraq and (via […]

The strategic complexion of Asia has shifted substantially in recent years. The United States is no longer the predominant military, diplomatic, and economic power across the region, as it was for the last half of the 20th century and the first decade of this century. China actively contests American leadership as it strives to restore […]

No one can truly predict what the next five years of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will mean for Turkey, the Middle East, the NATO alliance and Russia. The recent JST articles by Turkey experts indicate a wide range of views.  >> Window on Washington: Read more from Dov S. Zakheim Although his electoral victory in May […]

The Republic of Sudan was born in war when it became independent in 1956. Since April of this year, the country is once again engulfed in a war that has ethnic, regional and institutional dimensions and that can once again result in a regime that exports instability and harbors terrorism.     Sudan has been here before. […]

The JST asked three prominent Israeli foreign affairs commentators about Turkey-Israel relations after the Turkish elections. Act with CautionBy Amos Yadlin Warming up to Israel and reviving bilateral relations have been part of Erdoğan’s broader détente policy in the region. The Turkish economy’s dependence on Saudi Arabia and the UAE, with the channels now reopened […]

The JST asked four seasoned observers of Turkey, three being former practitioners of US foreign policy and one a celebrated writer with several books on Turkey, for their views of the country in the immediate aftermath of its May elections. The Mood in Turkey Stable, but Existing Fractures are WideningBy Hugh Pope Turkey’s presidential and […]

Pity Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. The Turkish opposition candidate faced an impossible challenge: running for president with American lipstick on his cheek.    Call it the kiss of Biden. In 2020, when Joe Biden was a candidate for president, he told the editorial board of the New York Times that he favored working with “elements of the Turkish […]

The JST asked four experts on Turkey from journalism, academia and government service for their thoughts on “whither Turkey” in the immediate aftermath of the May 28 elections.   In Turkey, “It’s not the economy, stupid”Alan Makovsky The run-off elections of May 28 ended with Erdoğan winning roughly 52% of the vote, essentially as was expected […]

Israel’s current policy towards Gaza is based on deterrence, reinforced with periodic military operations. But the military capabilities of Hamas and Islamic Jihad are growing. Israel should actively consider alternatives to its current strategy as I outline here. Background  The Gaza Strip, known as Gaza, is 365 square kilometers with a population of slightly over 2 […]

On November 15, 2022, NATO and Russia had a tense moment that might have escalated into a military confrontation. A missile hit a Polish village near the Polish-Ukrainian border, killing two civilians. Associated Press cited unnamed Western officials that it was a Russian missile. It might have been the basis for Poland invoking Article 5, […]

The November 2022 elections in Israel gave the present coalition a clear majority of 64 out of 120 members of the Knesset. The coalition intended to produce a government with a firm rightwing ideological orientation. At long last, Likud party loyalists cheered, we don’t need to compromise with centrist or left-leaning partners.  >>  Insight from […]

On June 25, just over 9 million Guatemalans will head to the polls to elect a president, vice president, members of congress, and municipal authorities. The story behind Guatemala’s elections is complicated. 

Jake Sullivan was 44 when President Biden named him as national security advisor, the youngest American national security adviser in nearly 60 years. He comes not from a college campus with sweeping untested theories, but rather from Capitol Hill and the State Department with practical experience as a diplomat and policymaker. He focuses on what […]

Three former US military officers recently reflected in these pages on the “The Lessons We Should have Learned from Vietnam,” based on their experiences in that war. Here are three former Israeli officers who similarly reflect on the formative war of their careers – the 1982 invasion of Lebanon.   Doron Almog on a Misguided Strategy […]

Haiti has for decades been in a perfect storm of internal challenges – earthquakes, floods, poor governance and now a capital nearly overrun by gangs. The international response has often brought its own storms – including a cholera epidemic and sexual predation by UN peacekeepers.   Haitians are becoming increasingly desperate, while the international community is […]

Egypt’s army specializes in executing set-piece operations. In 1973, the army had the idea of using water cannons to dissolve parts of Israel’s defensive line on the Suez Canal, huge sand berms erected to prevent an Egyptian assault into Sinai. The Egyptian army did in a few short hours what Israeli planners thought would take […]

India and the United States have overcome the distance and suspicions that arose out of India’s refusal to align itself with the US soon after its independence in 1947. Over the last three decades, the world’s oldest and largest democracies have built a multi-layered and likely enduring partnership.  Public opinion in both countries favors close […]

The new presidents of Colombia and Brazil, the two most prominent leaders in South America, are both looking to shake up the status quo – with different playbooks. Colombia’s Gustavo Petro takes a confrontational, boisterous, outspoken, and anti-establishment approach. Brazil’s Lula da Silva (“Lula”) is a pragmatic, conciliatory leader seeking to build broad coalitions around […]

Everyone recognizes that America’s withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 was a chaotic mess. Even the Biden administration, in a National Security Council document released on April 6, acknowledges the civilian evacuation from Kabul should have been carried out sooner. House Foreign Affairs Chairman Mike McCaul (Republican of Texas) has been adamant that the administration come […]

On March 29, a few hours after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pressed pause on his government’s plan to overhaul Israel’s judiciary, US President Joe Biden delivered a warning to his long-time friend. “Like many strong supporters of Israel, I’m very concerned,” Biden said, masking his deep frustration with measured understatement. “I’m concerned that they get […]

The streets are seething. Police have clashed with demonstrators and there have been not only arrests but some violence. Hundreds of thousands and likely millions have protested proposed government actions. Unions have called for nationwide strikes. Government reactions have elicited even more fierce opposition. Israel? No, France. Most recently, protests have intensified when the government completely […]

Recently, I was asked whether I might consider revising the book I wrote on the US-Israeli relationship entitled Doomed to Succeed. Turmoil in Israel, the most right-wing, religious government in Israel’s history, and President Biden’s decision to hold off inviting Prime Minister Netanyahu to Washington led to concerns about where the relationship might be headed, […]

Twenty years ago, on 17 March 2003, Mohammed ElBaradei, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), reported to his board that Iran was in breach of its Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) obligations – which require a signatory to use all nuclear technology in the country exclusively for peaceful purposes and to follow a policy […]

A bitter debate has now engulfed Israeli society over the proper role of the judiciary. The new government, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, began its term in January by introducing far-reaching reforms to the judiciary, which I have already described in detail. The continuing strong reaction to these proposals, well described by my JST […]

China’s evolving role in the Middle East is analyzed by US Ambassador Peter Pham.

General Stanley McChrystal and Ellen Chapin reflect on the tension between debate and consensus in McChrystal’s military career and in other episodes of US history.

Introduction  In a hard-hitting essay published here in the Jerusalem Strategic Tribune, A Year of War, the Washington Institute’s Anna Borshchevskaya paints a sobering picture of what Ukrainians, and all in NATO, face. She argues that Russians view the war as an existential struggle for their future. Washington and the rest of NATO are now rightly ensuring that at a minimum […]

The global order is changing rapidly. China is brokering normalization between Iran and Saudi Arabia while the United States brokers normalization between Arab states and Israel. Turkey and Russia are both antagonists and collaborators in multiple hot spots. Ukraine’s military is proving stronger than Russia’s. Alliances and friendships in the Indo-Pacific are coalescing against Chinese […]

“Japan is not now and will never be a tier-two power,” declared Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in a speech to the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington in February 2013. He was there to champion the idea of a Quadrilateral Security Dialogue between Japan, the United States, India, and Australia. He succeeded in […]

If Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu believes that a nuclear Iran is Israel’s greatest threat, then why is his government focused instead on passing domestic judicial reform legislation as its top priority? This question, posed by a former head of the Mossad’s Iran department, appeared in the headlines of Israel’s daily Yedioth Ahronoth on March 3. […]

A year after invading Ukraine, Vladimir Putin defines the war as an existential battle for Russia’s survival. In a classic case of the aggressor blaming the victim, Putin says the West invaded Russia using Ukraine. “It’s they [the West] who have started the war. And we are using force to end it,” he said on […]

Since December 2022, every Saturday evening after Shabbat, tens of thousands of Israelis have demonstrated against the judicial reform proposals of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s government. Former generals and judges, economists, journalists, hi-tech professionals, medical workers, shopkeepers, young students and their grandparents who fought in the War of Independence, native-born Israelis and recent immigrants, and Arab […]

[Note from the Editors: We have added parenthetical comments to the article for context in several places.] The United States frames its relations with China as a great power competition, in terms of the Biden administration’s national security strategy, for example. China claims to have a different view, having just emerged from three years of […]

A strident debate is occurring in Israel about the role of the judiciary and democratic governance. Virtually every democracy debates this issue periodically, because there is an inherent conflict between majority power and minority rights. The traditional role of non-elected courts is to impose a check on politicians who are elected by the majority. Whenever […]

As Israel’s finance minister from 2003–2005 and later as prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu was the father of Israel’s economic miracle that transformed a stagnant socialist economy into a thriving “start-up nation.” Today, however, Netanyahu is on a path toward wrecking what was one of his crowning achievements. His government’s proposed judicial reforms have begun to […]

To avoid receiving an energy bill she couldn’t afford, Zinaida Negruti, like countless others in Moldova, began spending more time in the dark as fall transitioned into winter. “Most of the time I don’t turn on the lights because I am worried it will be too expensive,” she says. “I try to use as little […]

In July 2022, against the backdrop of the ongoing war in Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin embarked on a notable foreign trip. Amid mounting international censure and growing hostility from the outside world, Putin traveled to Tehran to meet with Iranian officials and formally usher in a new phase in the long-running strategic partnership between […]

In the last week of January, the US and Israel conducted the largest joint military exercise between the two countries, codenamed “Juniper Oak,” marking a milestone in the evolving cooperation between Israel and the US Central Command (CENTCOM). To those familiar with the bureaucratic handling of US–Israel military cooperation, this all seems incredible. When the […]

No Woman No Cry Recently, in the ongoing nightly saga of Israel’s domestic politics, the Israeli Supreme Court disqualified Aryeh Deri, the leader of the ultra-Orthodox Shas political party, from holding ministerial office. Suddenly some of his supporters suggested an unusual idea. Perhaps his wife, Yaffa, could be appointed instead. At that dramatic moment, if […]

The debate in Israel is generating a lot of heat on partisan lines, but little light. Opponents of the new government’s proposals see them stripping the judiciary of its independence and thus striking a blow to the country’s democracy. Proponents see these proposals as long overdue reforms to restrain judicial activism and bring Israel’s judiciary […]

Jacob Nagel’s recent article in the JST, “Security Challenges Facing the New Israeli Government,” tours the often-visited terrain of threats to Israel and focuses, quite rightly, on Iran and Hezbollah. Adding an economic element to such overviews will provide greater clarity and accuracy in assessing Israel’s strategic needs. Two aspects of such an economic element […]

Steve, Our friendship goes back to graduate school days at Princeton and continued throughout our careers in US government service. We have moved in opposite directions politically—you to center-left and me to center-right—though we probably still agree on a lot. Let’s explore two issues—the general issue of whether or not the US needs to retrench […]

The State of Israel is not required by law to adopt a national security strategy. But the need for such a document has been often raised, and several efforts have been made to write one. In October 1953, Prime Minister David Ben-Gurion presented a long disquisition on Israel’s security needs to the Cabinet, which he […]

The Biden administration does not view US–China competition in the Middle East as a zero-sum prize for one side to enjoy at the other’s expense. This measured response to China’s growing influence could change, however; outlined below are factors that could shift US policy toward great power confrontation in the region. China’s President Xi Jinping […]

Few events in history have been watched live by more people around the world than the final match of the World Cup soccer tournament in Qatar on December 18, 2022. After a riveting game, it was the legendary leader of the Argentinian team—Lionel Messi—who lifted the golden trophy. Right then, as hundreds of millions were […]

General Aviv Kochavi, the outgoing chief of the general staff, probably never thought that he would need to call the incoming prime minister over a political matter in his last month of service. But in December, Kochavi’s concerns over Bezalel Smotrich’s proposal to create a new position in the Defense Ministry went public. The new […]

As Israel heads into the 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur War of 1973, one issue from that momentous war is still debated in Israel. Who was to blame for Israel’s failure to anticipate the Egyptian and Syrian surprise attack: the military intelligence officials (and by extension the organization and mentality of the intelligence establishment) […]

The Knesset elections in November ended in a virtual tie between the left and right in terms of votes cast. But Netanyahu proved far more skillful in organizing the parties of the right than Yair Lapid did on the left, resulting in a decisive parliamentary majority for Netanyahu. The question now is whether he can […]

The 2022 Congressional elections surprised virtually everyone. Until late September, the Republicans expected to take the House with a sizable majority. Perhaps it would not be the 60-plus advantage they anticipated earlier in the year, but still one in excess of twenty seats. Instead, when the 118th Congress convenes on January 3, the Republicans will […]

A magical moment is recalled in a well known Israeli song (sung by Yehudit Ravitz in 1979): “You took my hand in yours and told me, let’s go down to the garden—the things you see from there are not what you see from here.” A generation later, in 2005, the refrain “what you see from […]

Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine has been underway for almost nine years and is closing on one year in its current, full-scale form. What we can learn from the war’s origins and initial stages may assist us in finding the right policies to help end it on the best possible terms for Ukraine and […]

With recent experiences of Iraq and Afghanistan in mind, three former US ambassadors look back at their earlier careers as infantry officers in Vietnam and offer the following lessons.

The first thing one sees after crossing the Qalandiya checkpoint from Jerusalem en route to Ramallah is a huge mural of Marwan Barghouti, the imprisoned Fatah leader who is seen by many Palestinians as the successor to Mahmoud Abbas. Next to Barghouti’s portrait is that of the late Yasser Arafat. Placing these two figures together […]

Israeli election results of the past 30 years illustrate the dramatic decline of Israel’s formerly ruling left. In the 1992 elections, under the leadership of the late Yitzhak Rabin, the Labor Party won 44 seats (out of 120) in the Knesset, and his Meretz partner (led by its late leader, the sharp and acerbic Yossi […]

A New Doctrine for Israel The notion of a national security doctrine is usually associated with the foreign policy of hegemonic powers, particularly the United States. Several American presidents have either promulgated a doctrine or had one named after them. A doctrine is usually understood as encompassing economic, geopolitical, and even social objectives, as well […]

Nation building is a US policy for transforming post-conflict countries, a policy discredited among a broad swath of Washington because of Iraq and Afghanistan. But I question this consensus and recommend rehabilitating the policy in time to help reconstruct postwar Ukraine. >> Diplomatic Dispatches: Read more from Robert Silverman Didn’t the US role in postwar Japan […]

Ever since the Russian invasion of Ukraine last February, Israel’s policy of not supplying weapons to Ukraine has come under both domestic and international criticism. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently stated that the decision by Israeli leaders not to support Kyiv has encouraged Russia’s military partnership with Iran. Inside Israel, critics say support for Ukraine […]

EcoPeace’s bold initiative “A Green Blue Deal for the Middle East” calls on the Israeli and Palestinian governments to act cooperatively on water issues under a climate-crisis paradigm, rather than continuing to hold water issues hostage to politics

Africa is growing in importance post pandemic in energy markets, public health and information and communications, according to former US diplomat Laird Treiber.

The ongoing rapprochement between Israel and Turkey was reinforced recently on October 27 by the visit to Ankara of Israel’s Defense Minister Gantz, following the groundbreaking and highly symbolic official visit of President Yitzhak Herzog in March. Gantz met with his counterpart, Hulusi Akar, considered to be one of the mainstays of the AKP government, […]

Although it was not the Biden administration that fathered the Abraham Accords, it proved willing to adopt them—hoping, with this endorsement, to assuage the dismay felt by many in the region with other aspects of its policy. Still, the president has done little, so far, to promote the Accords and their expansion. Moreover, the weakening […]

In 2023, Turkey will hold a hinge election. An opposition victory would mean a more democratic, pro-Western Turkey—and a Turkey that keeps its distance from Islamist groups. An Erdoğan victory would solidify his hold on the nation and most likely mean diminished freedoms and continued Turkish efforts to balance East and West, as well as […]

Outlining his foreign policy objectives in 2020 in the magazine Foreign Affairs, then presidential candidate Joe Biden asserted that “it is past time to end the forever wars.” Indeed, as president, he withdrew all troops in a frenzied retreat from Afghanistan and reduced troop levels in Iraq by more than half. Ending the “forever wars” […]

Not since the Oslo Accords of 1993–1995 has an aspect of Israel’s relations with an Arab neighbor aroused such vehement argument in the Israeli public. Unlike the Oslo Accords, however, this is not a bilateral agreement signed in each other’s presence as Lebanon refuses to deal with Israel directly, in any manner that would imply […]

Israel is once again going to the election polls on November 1, for the fifth time in less than four years with only one real issue on the agenda: “Bibi or not Bibi.” Who is this man and why did he, from among all Israeli politicians, define and shape Israel for the past generation? Today, […]

The tragedy now unfolding in Ukraine serves as a painful and powerful reminder of one of the foundational lessons of modern history. Ideological and faith-driven fixations, whether in foreign or domestic affairs, lead to bad policy. Evidence-based policies do not necessarily guarantee success, but their built-in pragmatism allows for adaptations that take into account changing […]

How long can a lost war last? The predictions of military experts vary from several months to about a year. In my opinion, the duration of hostilities largely depends on three major factors.

Frazzled by recent discussions with her American Jewish counterparts, an Israeli friend recently asked me, “What alien species has taken over the American Jewish community?”

Israel has been known for years as a center for innovation in several high-tech fields from medical devices to information security. Today, Israeli entrepreneurs are expanding to new fields, such as climate tech and food security, while its government has become a leader in public health policy through its pandemic response. Preparing for Pandemics Israel, […]

As Jews all around the world observed the three-week period of the High Holy Days, tensions kept rising in the West Bank and Jerusalem: two Israeli soldiers, one of them a young woman, were killed and several wounded in recurrent shooting attacks, and riots broke out in several areas of Jerusalem. This is not unprecedented: […]

The summit of foreign ministers came together on relatively short notice. It was unstructured, informal, with little of the staff work or pre-negotiation that normally precedes such gatherings. The agenda was slim and general, and the outcome rather modest. But viewed through a historical scope, the results were transformational. I am not referring to the […]

Putin’s threats intensify the dilemma that has haunted the Biden administration and has influenced the degree of its support for Ukraine, almost from the outset of the war.

Shireen Abu Akleh, a Palestinian-American journalist for Al Jazeera, was killed on May 11 during a firefight between Israeli soldiers and armed Palestinians in the streets of the West Bank city of Jenin. This led to a firestorm of claims: pro-Palestinian accusations of a premeditated murder and pro-Israeli arguments of a killing by Palestinian fire. […]

Major General Hertzi Halevi will become the next chief of staff of the IDF on January 1, 2023. Military expert Tal Lev-Ram classifies the challenges facing the incoming chief of staff into five key problems.

Recent revelations, going back 60 years, shed new light on the intensity of Israel’s commitment to prevent enemy states from procuring means of mass destruction. For the last 41 years, this commitment has been public record. Following the destruction of the Iraqi nuclear facility in July 1981, Prime Minister Menachem Begin announced what became known […]

Labor Day marks the end of summer holidays for most Americans. This year it’s also the beginning of the run-up to the November elections. Political opinion surveys over the past two months indicate a shift of momentum. The Republicans were initially anticipated to benefit from a “red wave” retaking the Senate and obtaining as much […]

In mid-August 2022, reports began to spread in Israel’s political class about Iran’s willingness to compromise in the ongoing negotiations over a revived Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). This has led to a fear that the Biden administration may finally be within reach of a deal, which would put billions in Iran’s coffers and […]

Lieutenant General Gadi Eizenkot, Israel’s former chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces, joined Benny Gantz’s party. Gantz’s former military colleagues vanished from the political scene. Will the same now happen to Eizenkot?

I am the man of tomorrow who also lives the past. In my lineage are Moses, Jesus, Rambam, Sigmund Freud, Karl Marx, Albert Einstein, Woody Allen, Bobby Fischer, Bob Dylan, Franz Kafka, Herzl and Ben Gurion. I am part of a tiny and persecuted minority, who influenced the world more than any other people. While […]

On August 17, 2022 when the governments of Turkey and Israel announced their agreement to restore full diplomatic relations, Washington voiced its approval and support. But it was not the Biden administration that promoted the reconciliation between the two states.

This summer, Israel and Lebanon have come closer than ever to settling a decades-long maritime border dispute. A resolution of this dispute would not only give an economic boost to the region but also would help meet Europe’s energy needs.

In June 2022, the Knesset—Israel’s parliament—voted in favor of disbanding in preparation for new elections scheduled for November 1, 2022. These will be Israel’s fifth round of Knesset elections in three years, and the public is reluctant to head to the polls again. Even the opposition tried at first to see if it could knock […]

The Islamic Republic of Iran, now 43 years old, has proven itself to be remarkably resilient in weathering both geopolitical turbulence and domestic hardships. In doing so, it has defied the predictions of numerous scholars and pundits.  This trend could very well continue. Iran’s clerical elite has turned out to be extremely adept at changing […]

President Joe Biden’s July 2022 Middle East trip received mixed reviews. The White House apparently had hoped that the president’s visit would prompt the Saudi Kingdom to take some steps toward normalizing relations with Israel, given the tremendous success of the Abraham Accords. Riyadh would go no further than to open its airspace to all […]

Israel’s Latest Message of Deterrence

This coming January, Israel’s Chief of Staff will end his four-year term of duty. One of the main challenges facing the new chief of staff will be restoring the public trust in Israel’s military.

The Ukrainian economy is in dire straits after Russia’s attack on the country on February 24, with current forecasts of a 35% drop in gross domestic product (GDP) in 2022. The primary challenge is to stop Russia’s aggression, which is costly, but the next issue is to rebuild Ukraine and complete its post-communist reforms, which […]

Why did the IDF launch an attack on the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, knowing full well that this would lead to rocket attacks and counterstrikes?

Reflections on Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri and the Role of the Muslim Brotherhood in his Radicalization

Throughout a lengthy political career, president of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas experienced endless ups and downs.

What’s Next for Global Economic Governance?

Tel Aviv University’s Tal Sadeh explains how globalization of markets allows countries to evade economic sanctions, reducing their effectiveness.

The story of the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan pipeline.

Report from a Former US Congressman and Army Artilleryman

As we approach the two-year anniversary of a phone call that changed the Middle East, it is important to understand the impact and potential of the Abraham Accords.

The Russian invasion of its neighbor has a very strange feel to it. It is not just on the wrong side of history; rather, it is a bad reenactment of the worst parts of it.

One often hears that China is “winning” the competition with the United States in Southeast Asia. This strategically important region is home to 650 million people, and collectively is the world’s fifth largest economy and the US’s fourth largest export market. While serious competition is indeed a reality, it is not particularly useful to think […]

Since the rise of Abdel Fattah el-Sisi to power, the Egyptian government has invested in strengthening its ties with the Egyptian diaspora around the world, as an important pillar of Egypt’s “soft power” strategy.

The narrative of Israel being a “Startup Nation” ignores troubling and persistent macro-economic trends that place it at the bottom of the rankings among Western peers.

The Middle East has gone through tumultuous change throughout the last decade, from the aftermath of the Arab Spring to the signing of the Abraham Accords. The superpowers’ changing conduct, new regional power dynamics, as well as geo-ecological developments have served to change the Middle Eastern panorama. For Israel, these developments have heralded the creation […]

A dangerous, uncertain transition to a different global system may lie ahead, due to structural and economic reasons, which bring the impact of the war to practically every doorstep worldwide.

Nearly three decades after its establishment, the Palestinian Authority (PA) has failed to fulfill its historic national goal as a platform for the full implementation of Palestinian independence and the establishment

Russia’s war against Ukraine has put the Caspian countries in a quandary, as they are seeking to maintain their fragile independence.

El-Sisi is increasingly acting to put Egypt’s unique claims to fame as the oldest civilization.

The Role of Public Opinion in the War in Ukraine

From Collective Engagement to Action

Dilemmas, Threats, and Opportunities

This essay examines the big picture of this regional transformation.

Israel’s New Connectivity

Placement of quality personnel who are immune to ideological kinship and ulterior motives will get better results than exercises in re-organization.

How did the successful comedian become president of Ukraine?

The U.S. government was unable to agree on a budget for five months after the beginning of the fiscal year. Continuing resolutions have become a congressional addiction.

The theoretical framework of the IDF’s “Operational Concept for Victory” defines Israel’s new reality.

Israel’s defense doctrine should be reassessed, if deterrence is irrelevant to anti-guerilla and anti-terror warfare

Initial Observations and Lessons

The decision-making process and situation assessments by the Putin regime made the risky decision to invade Ukraine possible. But what exactly does Putin intend to achieve?

A More Robust Role is required in Countering Iran’s Ambitions

The 2022 Russian–Ukraine war presents a dramatic landscape of information warfare.

To understand the underlying reasons of the war in Ukraine, one must look at the manner in which Russia looks upon the world and upon NATO and the EU.

The Crisis that Wasn’t

Iran’s repeated excursions to Africa require far closer scrutiny.

For too long in the West, the continent of Africa has been viewed as peripheral to world affairs. This view is short-sighted and needs to be revisited.

There is little prospect of an Israeli–Syrian peace deal. Earlier attempts by Israeli leaders to come to terms with Syria had met with stiff opposition in the country.

Biden administration’s first foreign policy crisis in the Eastern Mediterranean merely conformed to the pattern of gradual American disengagement from a region that was once vital to US interests.

What comes next for the most powerful man in one of the Middle East’s weakest countries?

The Kurdish diaspora has started to move from the streets into the institutionalized venues and attempt to harness political support among civil society organizations.

Do the advantages of utilizing the IDF in responding to a the Covid-19 crisis outweigh the disadvantages?

The total number of Jews still living in Iran is remarkable, considering Iran’s more hostile Shiite jurisprudence, its history of murderous pogroms, its recent bouts of official Holocaust-denial antisemitism, and incessant anti-Israel sloganeering.

Ambassadorial positions should be filled with diplomats who meet the highest standards of the profession together with occasional non-professionals who bring a fresh perspective. But that is not how US diplomacy is generally staffed these days.

Iran's President Raisi appears not be interested in a deal and pressure must therefore be maintained. But the US should not allow itself to become enmeshed in an Israeli military action that likely would not totally destroy Iran’s nuclear capacity but would destabilize the region.

The underlying basis for a more positive view of Israel among the American Jewish public already exists, and the question is whether Israelis will succeed in tapping into it.

Ben-Gurion’s Grand Strategy and the Role of American Jewry

It is heartening to know that out of the tragedy of the pandemic can come something positive: a common stand

A hawkish Bennett and a weak Abbas are unlikely to bring about a solution. A third party—and new paradigms—are needed

Let us all labor to stop the bomb before it blows up in our faces

On the 30th anniversary of Israel–India relations, a look at a community that lives between the East and the Middle East

Israel is a regional power. The time has come for it to act accordingly

The Abraham Accords can remind US Jews that Israelis truly desire peace, so much so that their Arab neighbors recognize it

The US was never much interested in Syria. What pulled America in, and who has benefitted from the Syrian tragedy?

Is the world actually becoming more peaceful? And if so, why?

War is a human endeavor, and the assessment of warlike trends is too important to be left to machines

Washington is suffering from a severe case of political gridlock. Are internal divisions sapping American leadership?

What made Australia withdraw from the contract it signed with France for advanced submarines?

Israel desperately needs a stronger connection with diaspora Jews. Can the rift be healed?

Israel is far less of a bipartisan issue than it used to be. But there's something deeper going on in the US

Erdoğan knows he has no choice. The Bennett-Lapid government should not offer him a diplomatic lifeline

Does the growing importance of the psychological dimension in modern conflicts put the US and its allies at a disadvantage?

Israel has positioned itself as a global cyber power. But how does its defense fare?

Literature review: Shimon Shiffer's "Warning Lights, Secret Talks with Amos Gilead"

Military diplomacy is totally unnoticed in Israel, but in fact plays a significant role in shaping reality

Israel’s Lebanon Syndrome, the US’ Afghanistan Syndrome: Different military stories, similar conclusions

After all too many warnings of imminent breakout toward nuclear weapons, is it finally for real now?

This man had dedicated his life to Israel’s extermination. What remains of his legacy of violence?

Five lessons to be learned from decades of ineffectual policies, and a cornered cat

Force as a policy choice, necessary for liberal political leaders as it is for more conservative ones

Will the roller coaster ride that is the US–Pakistan relationship become more “normal” now?

America’s chaotic exit was merely the culmination of a series of major errors, going back to 2001

Why “knowing the enemy” and “knowing thyself” is not enough

What Congress can do to improve the executive branch’s decision-making process

How the Sunni–Shiite divide became a revolutionary mission, affecting the entire Middle East

The Biden administration seems to be on the wrong track. Here's what needs to change

A closer look at a critically important, but little known, example of US engagement in the Middle East

Two personal perspectives on Middle East peace, offering insights into the dynamics of building bridges

A dynamic new chapter is being written in the old story of Israeli–African ties. Where will it lead next?

A personal perspective on Middle East peace, offering an insight into the dynamics of dialogues that can build bridges

A personal perspective on Middle East peace, offering an insight into the dynamics of dialogues that can build bridges

America has returned to its role as a major energy producer and exporter, affecting much more than the global market

A pragmatic approach for the Biden administration's relations with Russia

Erdoğan’s new Turkey confuses everyone. Here are six rules for dealing with it

Literature review: The Obama memoir, like his presidency, over-promises and under-delivers

The lessons learned from the poorly managed US withdrawal, and its ramifications for foreign policy

Biden is the last of his generation of Democrats. What does it say for the present—and future—of US–Israel ties?

JST Debate: Action is needed to break the ongoing impasse in the Israeli–Palestinian peace process

JST Debate: A breakthrough in the Israeli–Palestinian peace process is unlikely

JST Debate: Voices from both sides of some of the most heated discussions of our time

Much hinges on Beijing’s expectation that time is on China’s side, but is that really the case?

A view from Singapore: How will Asian countries respond to Biden’s foreign policy?

Iran’s primary strategic objective is to drive the US from the region

The Mossad used to be a stealthy submarine. Under its new chief, it will revert to being a silent service

The IDF should draw some conclusions from recent conflicts on how to revise its information campaigns

The time has come to restore realist balance-of-power thinking to the center of international relations theory

A practitioner’s perspective: Only a militarily strong Israel can sustain its regional position

Neither email nor Twitter replaces the carefully drafted diplomatic dispatch

For some, the higher the cost, the stronger the claim to be the true representatives of values worth dying for

America’s adversaries are not the only ones to respond to Washington’s changing regional priorities

The political winds are blowing in an anti-China direction. Biden needs a sophisticated foreign policy strategy

Can Putin lead not only with power, but with solidarity, diplomacy, cooperation, and trust?