The strategic impact of decapitation attacks is a controversial question. Advocates point to organizations and nations thrown into disarray by the loss of their leaders: opponents mention what happened after Israel killed Nasrallah’s predecessor as the leader of Hizbullah, only to face for many years a much more formidable opponent. It is still early in […]

It is remarkable to witness the level of ignorance displayed by certain public officials, segments of the media, and various analysts when evaluating the rationale behind the joint American–Israeli military operation against Iran. For Americans, it is natural to perceive Russia and China as primary threats, given how deeply U.S. strategic thinking has been shaped […]

When American policymakers think of the Indo-Pacific region and the challenges it poses for U.S. security interests, it is understandable that the Pacific part comes to mind first. From the constant possibility of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan to North Korea’s menacing nuclear arsenal, threats to stability in the Western Pacific have enormous implications for […]

When missiles fall near Turkish territory, the expectation is usually clear: Ankara will answer with forceful rhetoric, calibrated signaling, and an emphatic defense of sovereignty. Yet when the source of that threat is Iran, Turkey’s response reveals a deeper strategic paradox. Even as Tehran tests Turkish red lines, Ankara remains reluctant to embrace any scenario […]

“Oil will be coming down … it went up a little but less than we thought. It’s going to come down more than anybody understands,” said a confident Donald Trump earlier this month, following news that the 32 members of the International Energy Agency (IEA) have agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil from […]

With all eyes now on the unfolding conflict with Iran, it would be easy to ignore a very different regional development of recent weeks. That, however, would be a mistake. Although it has since been overshadowed by the new Gulf war, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent state visit to Israel – complete with a […]

What Kim Jong Un says at the current Ninth Party Congress meeting will reveal whether there is an opening for nuclear negotiations with the Trump administration.  Despite President Trump’s repeated offers to meet with North Korea’s leader Chairman Kim Jong Un during his recent trip to Asia, there was no response.   Kim’s appearance with […]

The post–Cold War unipolar order – with the United States as the unquestioned, unchallenged hegemon – is over. While the great power rivalry between the U.S. and China is still in its formative stages, another state will exert disproportionate influence on how that competition ultimately unfolds. India – the world’s most populous state – is […]

With his Iran war, or, if you prefer, excursion, President Trump is upending political debate in America on the right. The resignation in March of Joe Kent, his director of the United States National Counterterrorism Center, has inflamed disputes about the origins and course of the war. In his resignation letter, Kent suggested that Trump […]

For his Latin American Leaders Summit, President Trump convened a group of like-minded hemispheric leaders in Doral, Florida. The meeting, driven by China’s influence in the Hemisphere, offered a rare opportunity: focused time among partners who understand that strategic competition in our own neighborhood is no longer theoretical. What is needed is a proposal that […]

As Israel and the United States undertake operations of unprecedented scale against Iran, with a regional war now underway and global implications mounting, many critics are asking why this is necessary. Some pundits and academics have sought to play down the threat of a nuclear Iran, claiming that the logic of nuclear deterrence would apply […]

Recent Iranian missile and drone attacks on civilian infrastructure across the Gulf have transformed the regional strategic landscape. For years, Gulf states pursued a careful policy of de-escalation, economic modernization, and selective hedging among major powers in order to preserve stability and protect their development agendas. They were not the authors of war, but the […]