Turkey’s Quiet Relationship with ISIS
On June 29, 2014, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the leader of the Islamic State in al-Sham (ISIS), was recorded on video speaking at the al-Nuri Mosque in Mosul, Iraq. (“Al-Sham” is the traditional Arabic name for the Levant.) He declared himself to be the caliph or divinely inspired absolute ruler of an Islamic state. ISIS had risen […]
Turkey’s Push for Regime Change in Syria: The Jihadi Highway
Syria’s civil war broke out in March 2011, in reaction to the brutal crackdown by the regime of Bashar al-Asad of popular protests that were part of the wider Arab Spring. In supporting the Syrian rebels, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan initially used the language of humanitarian intervention, claiming to protect civilians from the Asad […]
Turkey’s Neo-Ottoman Moment
Turkey’s Syria policy didn’t materialize in a vacuum. Rather, it was a reaction to the Arab uprisings that began in January 2011, known as the Arab Spring, which Turkish policymakers interpreted as a providential opportunity. The fall of entrenched dictators (in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Yemen and, eventually, Syria) would, the Turks believed, open the door […]
A US-Led Multinational Mechanism for Syria
Optimism about Syria abounds. The regime, despite its Islamist orientation, has adopted a generally moderate and pragmatic approach (though there are legitimate concerns about its security forces’ actions in the predominantly Druze area of al-Suwayda). Israel’s decimation of Hizbullah and weakening of Iran – the former Asad regime’s primary pillars of support – created this […]
Erdoğan’s Long Game in Syria
When Bashar al-Asad’s regime abruptly collapsed in December 2024, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan saw more than just a regional upheaval. He saw a long-awaited opportunity. With Iran’s influence waning and Russia distracted by internal instability and foreign entanglements, a rare power vacuum emerged in Syria. Erdoğan moved swiftly. For over a decade, Ankara had […]
The Israel-Iran War: The View from Ankara
When Israel struck Iran on June 13, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan waited several hours before issuing a fiery rebuke, accusing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “and his massacre network” of “setting [the] entire region on fire.” At the same time, Ankara must have quietly welcomed the attacks against its regional rival in Tehran. Turkey […]
The Struggle for Syria
On May 14, President Donald Trump stood smiling with Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman and Syria’s self-declared leader, Ahmed al-Shara’a, on the sidelines of the President’s visit to Riyadh. After the get together, the President declared that the United States would lift sanctions on Syria and re-establish diplomatic relations between the two countries. […]
The Regional Minorities of Syria and Their Relations with the New Regime
The popular uprising that erupted in Syria in March 2011 was largely limited to the Sunni Arab majority and was eventually led by Islamist activists. It confronted the country’s religious and ethnic minorities with existential challenges. Caught between the anvil of anarchy and the hammer of Islamism, they feared for Syria’s future as a secular […]
To Lock in Middle East Security, Up the Game
President Trump will be traveling to the Middle East at a time of great progress, given the terrible defeat Iran has suffered over the past eighteen months at the hands of exactly the regional alliance Trump is seeking now to further strengthen. Nevertheless, more work is needed on the three most pressing remaining Iran-related issues, […]
Where are America and Israel Going in Syria?
The United States and Israel face fateful decisions on Syria. Israel appears to be moving towards some level of confrontation with the Damascus regime, which is seen as allied with Erdoğan’s Turkey and identified increasingly in Israel as a threat. The US position remains unclear. But if history is any guide (and the unfortunate analogy […]
