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Bridge Colby Will Be Powerful as Under Secretary of Defense, But Not All-Powerful
When I first met Elbridge Colby (known as Bridge), he was a young analyst at the Center for Naval Analysis, where I served as a senior advisor. CNA is the US Navy and Marine Corps think tank and one of the “Federally Funded Research and Development Centers,” along with the RAND Corporation, MITRE, the Johns […]
The Mahmoud Khalil Case
American diplomats are supposed to serve at least one tour on the visa line overseas, interviewing would-be visitors. It’s important work that has the side benefit of supplying some good stories. The Mahmoud Khalil case reminds me of a story from my first tour at Consulate General Jerusalem in 1990, interviewing mainly Palestinians on the […]
Is the Pivot to Asia Finally Happening?
Trump has stunned Europe by following through on his pledge to force an end to the fighting in Ukraine, and making European allies take more responsibility for their own security. The Pentagon has reportedly been instructed to prepare to withdraw US forces deployed in Syria. Is the Trump administration in the early stages of actually […]
Whither Europe?
The six chords, each spaced with a rest of about a second, came crashing down in the resplendent home of Amsterdam’s Royal Concertgebouw Orchestra. The audience sat transfixed. Seated in the rear balcony, I was listening to Santtu-Matias Rouvali conduct Jean Sibelius’ 1919 fifth symphony based, like Beethoven’s, around a four-note motif. The opening of […]
A Cold Peace in Peril?
Israel-Egypt peace was carefully constructed in the 1979 treaty and has weathered numerous regional storms: the 1982 Lebanon War, two Palestinian intifadas, the upheaval of the 2011 Arab Spring, and even sixteen months of conflict in Gaza. Throughout, Israel and Egypt have sustained generally productive military and economic cooperation (despite persistent anti-Israeli sentiment in the […]
Why a Peace Agreement in Ukraine is Not a New Munich
The spirit of Neville Chamberlain is haunting establishment foreign policy circles. Senior Trump administration officials have begun meeting with Russian counterparts and floating possible scenarios for a negotiated peace deal. Some American media commentators – including on the right – have accused Trump of “selling out” and “betraying” Ukraine in the same way that Chamberlain […]
America Should Partner With Ukraine on Defense Tech
What happens on the battlefields of Ukraine will not stay in Ukraine. As the Spanish Civil War was a laboratory for the Second World War, so the current war in Ukraine prefigures technologies to be used in the next one. The US and its allies – Israel, Taiwan, South Korea, the Baltic States and Poland, […]
Where are America and Israel Going in Syria?
The United States and Israel face fateful decisions on Syria. Israel appears to be moving towards some level of confrontation with the Damascus regime, which is seen as allied with Erdoğan’s Turkey and identified increasingly in Israel as a threat. The US position remains unclear. But if history is any guide (and the unfortunate analogy […]
The Opening Moves of Germany’s New Leader
Friedrich Merz, the leader of the conservative Christian Democratic Union and likely the next chancellor of Germany, did not win a mandate in the federal elections on February 23. Instead, he earned what amounted to a four-year reprieve for the German political establishment. On February 28, he will start exploratory talks with the Social Democratic […]
The Futility of Lebanon
American endeavors in Lebanon are a waste of time and money. Lebanon is largely devoid of accountability and agency, with a government under the effective control of an internationally designated terrorist group – Hizbullah. Years of communal and elite squabbling, coupled with foreign interference from Iran and Syria, have created a dysfunctional and dystopic state […]
Containing Russia
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine three years ago was its first step towards reclaiming control over the lands between the Oder and the Don Rivers. Whether by means of coercion or invasion, Moscow’s successful subjugation of Central and Eastern European states would lead to a full-scale resumption of the Cold War. This can be prevented. First, […]
Rubén Ramírez Lezcano for OAS Secretary General
The Organization of American States will select its next secretary general on March 10. The OAS is a platform for collective problem-solving among its 35 members states, representing all the sovereign states in the Western Hemisphere except for Cuba and Nicaragua. Among the organization’s strengths are programs on citizen security (such as law enforcement training) and […]
Next Steps on Iran: Nuclear Talks with the US or Airstrikes by Israel?
Will President Trump agree to enter into renewed nuclear negotiations with Iran that allow Iran to avoid Israeli airstrikes? According to the Institute for Science and International Security, Iran is around six months away from being able to build a crude nuclear bomb, and likely several more months from having a nuclear warhead on a […]
Will Ukraine Survive a Russo-American Deal?
From the first day of his return to the White House, Donald Trump has made a point of demonstrating that he intends to carry out his campaign promises. In addition to the flurry of executive orders that he began to issue within hours of his inauguration, Trump has also made waves internationally.  By threatening to […]
From Liberal Wars to Illiberal Peace
President Trump has emphasized how peaceful the world was during his first administration compared with the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East that characterized Biden’s presidency. Trump aspires to end the ongoing wars and restore international peace.  We should also distinguish between two kinds of war and peace – liberal and illiberal. It’s possible […]
Milei Races Against Time to Remake Argentina
For decades, Argentina has been a cautionary tale of a once prosperous nation undergoing slow multi-decade collapse, proof of what happens when a society persistently ignores all the warning signs of prolonged mismanagement. In November 2023, Argentina’s voters broke with the past and elected Javier Milei, an economist with a wild haircut, the rhetorical style […]
Syria in Turmoil: The View from Jerusalem
Following the collapse of the Asad regime in December, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) moved to take over the highest peak of Mount Hermon across its border with Syria. Israel will remain there indefinitely, stated Minister of Defense Israel Katz recently. The IDF has long-term plans for Syria, and the expectation is that the current […]
President Trump Faces Two Major Issues in the Middle East
The future of Gaza is not one of them
President Donald Trump has enhanced his reputation for unpredictability in foreign policy with his novel suggestion, at a joint press conference with Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, that the people currently living in the Gaza Strip be evacuated and that the United States assume control of that territory and rebuild it. The president is surely […]
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