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Israel’s War Economy in the Balance
Israel’s economy faces two threats in 2025 – from the Iran-Gaza war and from the global economic upheaval caused by the Trump tariffs – but there are also signs of recovery.  As we approach the end of the first half of 2025, Israel finds itself straddling two wars. The obvious one started from Gaza on […]
The Israel-Iran War: The View from Ankara
When Israel struck Iran on June 13, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan waited several hours before issuing a fiery rebuke, accusing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “and his massacre network” of “setting [the] entire region on fire.”  At the same time, Ankara must have quietly welcomed the attacks against its regional rival in Tehran. Turkey […]
Iran’s False Calm Shattered
Iran until recently was a paradox: a deeply unpopular regime that appeared superficially stable. Three years after the massive nationwide protests of 2022, Iran’s streets were calm, though signs of discontent were starting to resurface, with scattered strikes and business closures, including unrest among truck drivers. Most Iranians despised the Islamic Republic; their quietude was […]
What Led to the Strike Against Iran's Nuclear Project?
On June 9, the Government of Israel decided on an extensive military operation, begun at three in the morning on Friday June 13, against Iran’s nuclear facilities, military leadership and ballistic missile infrastructure. Leading to this decision were a threat perception, which has been growing for decades, a window of opportunity, which opened in autumn […]
Options for Designating the Muslim Brotherhood as a Terrorist Organization
Once again a Trump administration is debating whether or not to designate the Muslim Brotherhood as a terrorist organization. The last time around, during Trump’s first term, the effort petered out amidst disagreements among Trump’s then principals. This time around, the stars may be better aligned. However, the inevitable controversy surrounding such a move must […]
The IDF in Gaza: “Gideon’s Chariots” Making Slow Progress
The Israel Defense Forces have been on the offensive in Gaza since March 18. This offensive faces the same challenges the IDF encountered throughout 2024. Israeli commanders appear reticent to enter some key urban areas in Gaza, including the Central Camps area of Gaza. This may be due, inter alia, to concerns that hostages are […]
Triumphing on Tariffs
On April 2, President Trump presided over a “Liberation Day” ceremony in the Oval Office, announcing dramatic increases in America’s tariffs on foreign goods and services, in a bold move that he described as America’s declaration of economic independence.   Trump imposed a general ten percent tariff on all countries, with additional surcharges on most countries […]
Syria: Not Federation, Rather Local Governance
Introduction Yusri Hazran, writing in the May Jerusalem Strategic Tribune , has raised important questions about the future of Syria, for many reasons critical to the security of the rest of the region as well as to the US and Europe. However, his suggestion of a federated Syria may not be feasible, although elements of […]
Progress in US-Europe Ballistic Missile Defense
The proliferation of drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles contributes to a dangerous threat environment today. These threats are not concentrated in any one area but range from the Russia-Ukraine conflict to the Middle East and the Asia Pacific.  In the past two decades, expensive but effective integrated air and missile defense systems like Patriot, […]
Russia’s Defense Ties in the Middle East Poised to Rebound
Russia’s defense relationships in the Middle East and North Africa have been gravely weakened as a result of its war in Ukraine. However, a peace deal, sanctions relief, or even a lengthy ceasefire could provide Russia with an opportunity to resume arms sales and security assistance to the Middle East, Africa, and the Indo-Pacific. The […]
Egypt-Israel Military Ties: Washington Must Pay More Attention
The Hamas attacks of October 7, 2023 marked a critical test of Israel’s quiet military partnership with Egypt. For more than a decade, Egypt and Israel maintained robust security coordination focused on ISIS cells in the Sinai peninsula. That cooperation, mostly kept out of the media, now faces its most serious challenge. Since the conflict in […]
A Warning from Munich
Munich is a city the Nazis regarded with special affection, terming it Hauptstadt der Bewegung, “capital of the movement.” Here in 1919 the German Army stationed Adolf Hitler after the First World War, employing him as a political agent. Here in November 1923 Hitler led the abortive Beer Hall putsch that was supposed to lead […]
Where is the Military-Industrial Complex Now That We Really Need It?
In his long and distinguished public career – including as Supreme Commander of Allied Forces in Europe in World War II and two terms as president of the United States – a single phrase of Dwight D. Eisenhower’s has entered and remained in the language: the military-industrial complex. He spoke those words on January 17, […]
The Regional Minorities of Syria and Their Relations with the New Regime
The popular uprising that erupted in Syria in March 2011 was largely limited to the Sunni Arab majority and was eventually led by Islamist activists. It confronted the country’s religious and ethnic minorities with existential challenges. Caught between the anvil of anarchy and the hammer of Islamism, they feared for Syria’s future as a secular […]
No Need to Rely on Russia to Keep China in Check
The Trump administration has identified China as the primary adversary of US global interests. CIA Director John Ratcliffe recently declared that, “no adversary in the history of our Nation has presented a more formidable challenge or a more capable strategic competitor than the Chinese Communist Party.”   Some in Trump’s circle maintain that a key to […]
Saying the Right Things: The New Syria Takes a First Step Towards the Abraham Accords
Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa has a colossal problem. Syria’s infrastructure, including housing and commerce, was significantly destroyed during more than a decade of civil war. The new Syrian government will have great difficulty rebuilding Syria after more than a decade of civil war unless US and other sanctions are lifted. Syria has been under comprehensive […]
Gideon’s Chariots - Israel’s Renewed Offensive in Gaza
On May 4, Israel’s security cabinet unanimously approved a comprehensive plan to dismantle Hamas’s remaining capabilities, both military and governmental, while offering Hamas a pause in exchange for a hostage release. The plan involves a large-scale call-up of reserves, a “clear and hold” strategy in parts of Gaza, and civilian evacuation as part of a […]
What’s Next for the Houthis?
Israel launches extensive retaliatory airstrikes against the Houthi economic heartland in northern Yemen, while the US pivots to announce a ceasefire with the Houthis. This divergence in approach between the superpower and a regional ally raises questions over whether momentum for an anti-Houthi ground offensive has been lost. An intensified American-led air campaign, “Operation Rough […]
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